Soul questioning: Is this the middle stage of the bear market's decline ❓ In yesterday's post (quoted below), I mentioned that I would be opening a special post today, Let me talk to you about a somewhat unsettling topic: Is there a resurgence of the decline from January to April 2022 now In this article, I will try my best to avoid all research methods that involve carving boats, From a logical perspective, analyze and compare the differences between the current situation and 2022 with everyone ： // Linear structure in terms of technology My old friends all know that my contract trading system is based on "Liquidity" as its core, By analyzing the potential liquidity on the linear structure, capture the footprint of smart money and then follow it. I have publicly tested and verified this trading system on Twitter multiple times, Friends interested in learning more about detailed concepts can refer to the following post, which will not be elaborated here Full post as evidence: How can I perfectly predict the two waves of ETH surge through liquidity https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1959793243404829167 In my posts over the past two weeks, I have repeatedly emphasized my own bias: I hope to see BTC return to its previous low (80.5K) for a Stop Hunt. The reason behind it lies in ： If there is uncleaned liquidity below, it will have a gravitational effect on the price, In the future, it is easy to disrupt the rise of BTC and create potential risks. As shown in the attached figure: We can see that the trend from January to April 2022 is like this, The price continues to rise to capture the liquidity of the previous high point (with small breakthrough ranges), At the same time, it left a large number of low points below and never touched them during the oscillation process, Causing a large amount of liquidity to accumulate at the low point below, ultimately attracting the price and leading to a decline And now the bottom building structure seems to be gradually developing in this direction, If there is really a direct upward trend in the future, it will not be a good thing for many armies, Because the 'hidden danger' below has not been resolved, from the perspective of liquidity, This will make it difficult for us to 'feel at ease and do our best'. So, does this mean that BTC is really in a 'bear market phase of intermediate rebound' now ❓ First of all, the answer is: no. Below, I will compare the differences in market conditions between 2022 and the present // 2022 vs Now: Core Differences in Market Conditions If we simply follow the linear pattern, we can be certain that we are currently in the middle of a bear market rebound process, Without considering other macro conditions and on chain data ... and many other factors, That's just a simple act of carving a boat and seeking a sword, which is completely useless for the transaction. Since Mr. Berg's establishment in 2024, I have publicly criticized the research method of carving boats and seeking swords multiple times, Interested friends can refer to the following posts ： Talking about the 2021 Double Top: What is' Future Data Leakage '? https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1891335031177851380 Going back to the present, I will summarize several core differences between the current and 2022: one ️⃣ Chip structure At that time, there was no situation of "high-level massive accumulation". Strictly speaking, This cycle is the first time in BTC history that there has been a "high-level massive accumulation", This is also one of the main factors that I believe is currently more likely to be the 'Shallow Bear Script'. High level and massive accumulation means that there is a larger amount of funds willing to hold in the current region, In the past, every bear market had a very thin accumulation of high-level chips. I have discussed related topics in the following posts, interested friends can refer to them ： Exploring the cyclical nature of BTC's gradual disappearance from the perspective of on chain data https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1910515596497936757 two ️⃣ The bottom fishing signal of Shallow Bear script From the perspective of on chain analysis, we have to admit that: On the day of BTC's sharp decline on 11/21, it fell all at once to the "shallow bear buying zone" that I had predicted in advance, And then it stopped falling and consolidated in the region, developing to this day. At that time, three low correlation on chain models all pointed to the same support region, And there were many signals after the market stopped falling, which did not happen at all in 2022 ‼️ Never hesitate, never delete posts. Friends who are interested in verifying can refer to the following posts ： Shallow bear bargain hunting script: Extreme deep callback may no longer exist https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1990232515458879733 Shallow Bear Bottom Picking Series Analysis Posts (Full): Simplified Summary Compilation https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1994586575015948555 Bottom fishing BTC, Mr. Berg officially returns to the multi army camp https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1991780406572835107 three ️⃣ The gradually rising 'deep bear bottom line' Of course, I cannot predict the future, so while planning the Shallow Bear script, I have also shared with you the method of bottom fishing when the deep bear arrives (see the end of this paragraph for details). There is another significant difference in the current market situation compared to 2022, That means' the deep bear bottom buying zone is gradually approaching the current price ' ‼️ Speaking of my most frequently mentioned and personally favorite 'Cointime Price', At the bottom of the bear market in December 2022, BTC fell to approximately 15.6K, At that time, Cointime Price gave a bottom position of about 17.5K, Its precision is self-evident. Not Afraid of Deep Bears: Four Divine Level Bottom Search Artifacts Always Ready https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/1990959747517067753 If the Shallow Bear script unfortunately fails, time goes back to the present, I don't think BTC can really replicate the super deep correction of traditional bear markets, Because the bottom line of these extreme deep bears is continuously rising over time: ➡️ Cointime Price: Currently around 52K ➡️ The blue line of the STH-RP model with deviation adjustment (https://(((((((x.com)))))/market_gegar/status/2008747891876393096): currently approximately=72K The clan is too numerous to keep up, I believe that by now, everyone can understand what I am trying to express. // Conclusion In summary, even though BTC's current bottoming out structure is not ideal, Even looking very similar to the '2022 downward relay structure', But I am still optimistic about the cyclical trend of BTC going forward. Lazy bag: ➡️ At present, the linear structure is not conducive to bottoming out, and it is indeed necessary to return to the front low to complete a Stop Hunt ➡️ Even if it is really a downtrend relay, I don't think it will replicate the traditional super deep correction ➡️ The reason is that the valuation of deep bears is gradually approaching upwards It's a bit verbose, I hope everyone can forgive me; I also wish all the multi army players who bought BTC with me on 11/21, We can all maintain patience in the coming time and welcome our own blessings That's all for today's content. Tomorrow is the weekend, and I wish everyone a happy weekend in advance