defioasis.eth|Jan 15, 2026 09:51
Looking at the Volume/OI ratio, prediction markets are generally below 1 or even lower, but Perp DEX can easily exceed 10. If you interact with prediction markets using the high-frequency opening and closing methods of Perp DEX, you might lose badly and gain almost nothing.
Volume (Avg 7d)/OI ratios are as follows:
Opinion: 95.16%
Kalshi: 85.52%
Predict Fun: 42.18%
Polymarket: 33.61%
Opinion is relatively the highest, and I guess the reason is that it’s currently in the sprint phase before TGE. A notable indicator is that Opinion’s weekly and monthly trading volume growth both exceed 30%. In terms of weekly growth, it’s significantly higher than the other two new platforms, Predict Fun and Probable.
Kalshi’s focus is on sports events. The trading volume for sports events often concentrates in the few hours during and before games, making the trading volume more dynamic and explosive. This results in a higher ratio for static indicators like OI.
Using the mature Polymarket as a benchmark, Predict Fun’s ratio is slightly higher, which seems reasonable for a platform in its early growth phase. For Polymarket, which has near-zero fees, pure trading volume growth doesn’t directly translate into revenue. Instead, real-world influence, brand value, and ecosystem expansion are more important sources of long-term value.
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