If Trump's tariffs are found illegal tonight, it could be the most dangerous day of 2026. Tonight at 23:00, Trump's tariff stick is about to face its final judgment. Now on Polymarket, The probability of Trump losing in the Supreme Court has been pushed to 72%. From a probability perspective, This means one thing: The tariffs that have already been collected are likely to be spat out. If this verdict had happened last year, That is almost certain to be positive for the market. Everyone should still remember, When the big stick of tariffs first came down last year, How badly the currency market has fallen. At that time, tariffs directly increased inflation uncertainty, The Federal Reserve even postponed interest rate cuts as a result. At that stage, imposing tariffs was undoubtedly negative. But now, the situation is completely different. 1、 The current issue is not whether the tariffs are reasonable, but whether the money has been collected for a year Many people are still using last year's logic to look at this matter: Tariffs declared illegal → inflation reduction → favorable risk assets This logic holds true in the context of 'no longer accepting money in the future'. But the current problem is: This is not future money, this is money that has already been received. If the Supreme Court determines that tariffs are illegal, What does it mean in legal logic? It means this money, It should not have been collected from the beginning. The issue immediately shifted from 'policy adjustment', Upgraded to—— Cash flow reversal. At the fiscal level, this is a very rare and sensitive matter. 2、 To whom should this money be refunded? This is a crucial issue that many people overlook. The answer is: It is not returned to foreign governments, nor is it directly returned to ordinary consumers. But give it back—— The importer who initially paid tariffs to the US Customs. These importers include: Domestic companies in the United States (retailers, manufacturers, distributors) Multinational corporations' US subsidiaries that declare customs in the United States That is to say, A considerable portion of the money is theoretically refunded to American companies. But things are not that simple. 3、 How to withdraw? When will you refund? Can we not refund? In the real world, tax refund is not about "the court makes a judgment and the money is immediately credited to the account". There are only three possible paths: Firstly, immediate and comprehensive tax refund ——Legally the cleanest, but with the greatest financial impact, it is almost unrealistic. Secondly, procrastination+partial refund ——Spread the cash flow shock over multiple years through procedures, appeals, and reviews. Thirdly, do not directly withdraw, use other ways to hedge ——For example, changing the law to continue collecting tariffs, or offsetting with other taxes. You can understand here, Why did White House Economic Advisor Hassett say that: If we fail to win the tariff lawsuit in the Supreme Court, We have other ways to achieve the same goal. 4、 What does Hassett mean by 'other methods'? In human language, it actually means one sentence: Even if this legal path is blocked, tariffs will not easily disappear. This may include: Re impose taxes on specific industries under the pretext of 'national security' Restart investigation and taxation on the grounds of 'unfair trade' Use temporary tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, collect first and then proceed Using other taxes or fees to rename tariffs and continue to exist What does this mean for the market? It means—— Trade uncertainty will not completely end with just one judgment. 5、 What should we do if Trump promises to give the people a "tax refund/water release"? This step is the real factor that affects the short-term trend of the cryptocurrency market. Trump has previously sent a very clear signal: To use tariff revenue, Sending money to American families. But if tonight's tariffs are deemed illegal, Logically, there will be a direct conflict: If this money should not have been collected in the first place, Can you still consider it as a 'distributable financial resource'? The answer is: very difficult. That means—— In the short term, a portion of the market's implicit expectation of fiscal easing is likely to be withdrawn. 6、 The qualitative impact of this on the cryptocurrency market Here I give you a very clear judgment: ▶ Short term: bearish bias The reason is simple: Refund=Dismissed money plan Fiscal uncertainty ↑ Expected water release ↓ For encryption, this is equivalent to: The expected liquidity has been withdrawn. Adding short-term uncertainty risks So in the short term, it tends to be bearish ▶ Medium to long term: biased towards positive news But if we extend the time, the logic will reverse. Tariffs are essentially: Friction in Global Trade Obstacles to capital flow Distortion of the global financial system If this system is weakened, Even if the process is awkward and not smooth, Long term friction reduction in the global financial system. This pair: Pricing of risk assets Global capital flows The narrative of decentralized assets All are positive. 7、 Why do I say this is the 'most dangerous day' Danger is not because it is bound to fall. The danger lies in: In the short term, the market will reprice whether fiscal easing still exists Mid term: The market needs to re understand the relationship between tariffs, deficits, and interest rates Long term: Whether institutional friction is really starting to loosen, there is no answer yet The old logic is failing, and the new logic has not been fully established yet. This type of node, The most likely thing to happen is not a one-sided market trend, But rather a drastic, repetitive, and uncomfortable repricing. the last sentence If tonight's verdict is really illegal, This may not necessarily be the worst day of 2026. But it is likely to be the most easily misjudged day. You don't have to be bearish, You can also choose not to chase after the price increase. But at this node, Don't blindly use leverage Otherwise, it's you who will explode.