The market expects the Federal Reserve to not cut interest rates in January, and the options market is betting on the Fed to remain inactive throughout the year According to BlockBeats, on January 14th, an increasing number of options traders are ruling out expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2026 and instead betting that it will maintain interest rates unchanged throughout the year. This trend can be traced back to at least last Friday. At that time, US employment data showed an unexpected decrease in the unemployment rate. Based on market prices, this almost eliminates the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month and prompts more and more traders to postpone their expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts in the coming months. David Robin, an interest rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services, pointed out that "from a data perspective, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at least until March has increased, and as each meeting point passes, the possibility of interest rates remaining stable is increasing." The recent flow of options for the guaranteed overnight funding rate, which is closely linked to the Fed's short-term benchmark interest rate, sends a more hawkish signal. New option positions are mainly concentrated in March and June contracts to hedge against the continued delay of the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut. Other positions targeting longer-term contracts are expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's stance of keeping interest rates unchanged throughout the year. Robin said that regardless of whether the market believes that the Federal Reserve will remain inactive, the cost of these transactions is low, and as a rigorous risk manager, you would want to hold such positions. (Golden Ten)