Wintermute Weekly Report: Bitcoin's Major Fluctuations Are Approaching one ⃣ Market Strange Phenomenon: Risk Appetite Returns, Cryptocurrency Shows Flat Performance This week, the global market entered a risk appetite mode, with the Russell 2000 index rising 4.6% and the S&P and Nasdaq closing higher. However, the cryptocurrency market did not rise but fell: BTC (-0.6%), ETH (-0.7%). Conclusion: The weakening of cryptocurrencies is not due to a deteriorating macro environment, but is limited by specific capital flow directions. two ⃣ Chip compression: 90% probability suggests a major fluctuation is imminent BTC has been trading sideways for the month between the high of $80k and the low of $90k. The current 30 day trading range is at the 91st percentile in history (extremely narrow). Historical backtesting: This stage of "zero volatility" is usually a prelude to an outbreak. After similar compression periods in history, BTC has a 75% chance of recording positive returns within 90 days. three ⃣ Capital flow reversal: 1 billion inflow vs 1 billion outflow At the beginning of January, the start was extremely strong (with a total inflow of over 1.1 billion US dollars on January 2nd and 5th), but in the following three days (Tuesday to Thursday), there were almost equal outflows. This doesn't seem like a panic distribution, but more like a tactical rotation after short-term quick money profit taking. Trading volume remains healthy, with strong support at the bottom of $89000- $90000. four ⃣ Structural Change: Morgan Stanley Shifts from Selling Tickets to Dominating the Market Under the noise of capital outflow, the underlying facilities are undergoing a qualitative change: Da Mo has applied for ETFs for BTC, ETH, and SOL, officially transitioning from a token distributor to an issuer. SOL ETF with staking: This sends a signal that regulation is extremely friendly to POS assets. Recommended by Bank of America Open Advisor. These actions mean that long-term giants are laying out for the next 5 years, not 5 weeks. five ⃣ CPI and CLARITY Act will be clarified This Wednesday (today): CPI data (expected to be 2.7%) will be released, and mild data will support expectations of interest rate cuts. This Friday (January 15th): The CLARITY bill is submitted to the Senate. If passed, this bill will remove regulatory uncertainty and become a key catalyst for the market to break through the range and move towards $100k.