Phyrex|1月 13, 2026 21:02
In fact, from the market expectations, it can be seen that the expected CPI is the same as before, which indicates that the market has enough ideas that the current CPI will not be out of line, and inflation should be able to maintain the level of November, only the trend of core inflation has exceeded market expectations.
Previously, I also heard that the market believed that the low inflation in November was due to the shutdown, but in reality, it seems to have little to do with the shutdown, especially since the monthly rate of core inflation has actually decreased. The overall inflation seems to have only risen for food and housing, and I don't know if it's due to seasonal reasons.
However, I completely agree with Owen's point that even if inflation were to decrease, it would not be enough to change the Federal Reserve's thinking. After all, the decrease is not yet significant, and Nick also posted that the probability of not cutting interest rates in January should be 100%. I don't know if there are any plans to predict the market's luck.
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