Phyrex|Jan 13, 2026 10:50
Can the rise in memory and hard drives drive the explosion of on chain storage sector?
Let's talk about the answer first. From the perspective of correlation, although it cannot be said that there is not a single penny relationship, the correlation may not exceed 1%.
The price increase of memory and hard drives is mainly due to:
Firstly, this is a typical AI data center capital expenditure cycle.
Whether it's DRAM, HBM, or enterprise grade HDD, they essentially serve the expansion of computing infrastructure. AI training and reasoning are not just about consuming memory, but also require computation, memory, storage, power, and networking simultaneously. This is a complete system, not a single requirement.
Secondly, the demand is real, not conceptual.
What data centers need is high-frequency, stable, and predictable read-write performance, as well as extremely low unit storage costs. The increase in memory and hard disk prices reflects changes in real orders, real purchases, and real delivery cycles, rather than emotions or expectations.
Thirdly, the supply side is contracting, but there is no shortage.
Whether it is memory or HDD, there is a common feature in this round of price increases. After experiencing a long-term price war, manufacturers have chosen to control production, increase prices, and focus more on high-end and enterprise oriented products, prioritizing cash flow and gross profit margins. This means that the sensitivity of prices to changes in demand is amplified.
On chain storage, on the other hand, is completely the opposite.
Firstly, on chain storage does not serve the computing power system, but rather the consensus system.
AI data requires a large amount of real computing power, not consensus. Describing large-scale data as consensus itself is an incorrect solution in both engineering and economics.
Secondly, on chain storage addresses the issue of trustworthiness, not scale.
99% of the storage needs in the real world do not require network wide replication, non erasability, or decentralized arbitration. What they need is affordability, stability, controllability, and accountability.
Thirdly, price increases will not be transmitted to the chain.
The price increase of memory and hard drives will only make data centers more emphasis on cold and hot layering, further engineering and scaling of storage architecture, and more sensitive to cost and efficiency. And it will not make enterprises suddenly accept an on chain solution with higher costs, poorer performance, and unclear responsibilities.
So the two are not on the same demand curve, nor are they in the same capital expenditure logic. If you insist on finding a relationship, it will be more of an emotional "narrative" rather than a structural "real benefit".
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