On January 13th, Matt Weller, head of market research at Forex.com, a financial website, stated that he expects the overall and core CPI growth rates in the United States to be 2.7% year-on-year in December. Overall, the process of inflation falling towards the 2% target has been stalled for over a year, during which the overall year-on-year increase in CPI has remained in the range of 2.3-3%; And the core CPI remains in the mid to high range of 2.5-2.9%. Despite sustained inflation above target levels, the Federal Reserve's concerns about the job market are still seen as a more pressing issue, with market expectations that the federal funds rate will be further lowered this year. However, the implied probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again at the March meeting is only about 25%, and the market is confident that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged this month. The news of Powell being summoned by the US Department of Justice this weekend adds additional risk to the independence of the Federal Reserve. Although this is a low probability event, it increases the possibility of Trump replacing the Federal Reserve Chairman early. If this situation occurs (although the likelihood is still low), regardless of the current inflation data, more aggressive interest rate cuts may be seen.