A new window of the times is opening, and the dividend period may only be 1-2 years. I finished watching Elon Musk's latest 3-hour in-depth interview over the weekend, discussing AGI timelines, job markets, humanoid robots, and clean energy. The more I look at it, the more I can't sleep. Elon Musk said that there are still 2-3 years left in the dividend period. But according to my observation of the iteration speed, it may be shorter. The bow of the ship is changing direction, and most people are not aware of it yet. I would like to share some Elon Musk's views here and also record some personal opinions. 1. White collar jobs can already be replaced by half At present, AI is close to being able to replace half of the world's white-collar jobs. His conclusion is that companies entirely operated by AI will destroy those that do not use AI. And the latter has no resistance at all. AGI will arrive next year, and by 2030, AI will surpass the sum of all human intelligence Musk has given a clear timeline: achieving AGI (General Artificial Intelligence) by 2026, and surpassing all human intelligence combined by 2030. This schedule is later than I expected and more aggressive. But when ChatGPT first came out at the end of 2022, who could have imagined the current situation? 3. China will far surpass the world in AI computing power Musk's viewpoint is that, based on current trends, China will far surpass other regions in terms of AI computing power. China's electricity output will exceed three times that of the United States by 2026. They will handle the chip. " I am currently skeptical about this point. China does not lack electricity, but based on the AI applications I have tried so far, there is still a significant gap in the effectiveness of AI applications in China. Within three years, robotic surgeons will surpass the best human level When is Optimus stronger than the best surgeon? Three years. Three years on a large scale By then, there may be more Optimus robots than all the surgeons on Earth combined. Cost refers to capital expenditures and electricity. It can also be used in Zimbabwe. " If what he said is true, then healthcare will be the most intuitive field where AI can change the world. The biggest fear of parents' generation is getting sick, and many are afraid of not being able to find good doctors in small cities. In three years, this problem may no longer exist. 5. 10 billion robots in 2040? Not just this number Humanoid robots have three exponents multiplied: AI software, AI chips, and electromechanical flexibility. In addition, Optimus produces the recursive effect of Optimus. What are constraints? Metal. You have to move atoms He didn't say that chips are the bottleneck, he said metal. This made Wanwan think that the narrative of the next wave of commodities may not be lithium, but various metals needed by robots. 6. Space data centers will become the cheapest AI computing method A fully reusable rocket with a propellant cost of approximately $1 million per flight. Launching a 10 megawatt AI calculation incurs a transportation cost of $1 million. " Six months ago, no one was talking about orbital data centers, but now every company is talking about them. I never thought about this evening before. Building a data center on Earth requires solving a bunch of problems such as electricity, cooling, land, and approval. In space? Infinite solar energy and natural vacuum cooling. Musk may be playing another big game. 7. The core of AI security: Do not let AI lie Musk's primary belief in AI safety is to pursue truth to the fullest extent possible. It's not that AI is too smart, it's that AI is forced to lie. Nowadays, many AI products are subject to a bunch of restrictions for the sake of "political correctness", which may actually be laying landmines. If you have time, you can go and watch the original video. I'll give you directions tonight 《Elon Musk's 5 Year Vision: AGI Timelines, Job Markets, Humanoid Robots & Clean Energy 》