From the daily chart, BTC is still oscillating within a narrow range around 90000, repeatedly fluctuating at key positions. Regardless of whether the trend is bullish or bearish, there should be a decent trend market here. Looking at the technical aspect: After the weekly MACD dead cross, the column begins to narrow and momentum is depleted, but it has not yet reversed RSI weekly line hovering around 45, neutral weak, not oversold but not strong either Key support: Around 88000 yuan (channel down track+intensive clearing area at the end of last year+200 day MA support), once lost, it may quickly descend to 84k-85k to stop bleeding Upper pressure: 94k-95k (previous high+50 day MA), breakthrough is required to confirm the start of rebound Combining with the US stock market: AI boom+The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates three times last year, but this year the market expects only 1-2 cuts in 2026 (CME futures pricing is more dovish, once in April and once in September), overall liquidity is still tight. If the US stock market continues to fluctuate and rise, BTC as a risky asset will follow, but it will not be as crazy as last year. If the AI foam worries+tariff influence rises again, and the US stock market retreats, BTC probably will fall again. The ETF data is very heart wrenching: there was a massive loss of $4.5 billion in the two months to the end of 2025, and another outflow of over $1 billion in the first few days of January this year. However, BlackRock IBIT is still crazily sucking money (nearly $100 million in a single week), indicating that institutions are buying more and more as they fall at a low level, and retail investors/weak hands are cutting. This is the signal of a real bull market - money hasn't run, it's just a change in stronger holders. Most likely trend in the past 3 months: Most likely (65%): Build a bottom around 88000-90000 (within 1-4 weeks), then rebound to test the psychological barrier of 94k-100k, and shake to raise the bottom. Next chance (25%): Directly breaking through 88k and then falling to around 84k (if the US stock market experiences a simultaneous decline and ETFs continue to bleed), but this is an opportunity to increase positions. Optimistic (10%): Quickly break through 95k and head straight to 105k+(requires sudden influx of large funds or unexpected dovish response from the Federal Reserve). One sentence: Now is the hell mode in the bull market, many people are afraid, but the real big money is waiting for you to finish being afraid before coming in. Don't rush to shuttle, and don't cut your flesh and run away. OKX