qinbafrank|1月 10, 2026 00:35
Let’s talk about December’s non-farm unemployment data. The U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs in December, which was below expectations. Employment data for the previous two months was significantly revised downward, but December’s unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%. Meanwhile, wage growth remains resilient, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month in December, and the previous value revised up to 0.2%.
Non-farm job growth falling short of expectations basically shows that labor market weakness continues, but the drop in the unemployment rate temporarily eases the worst fears about labor market deterioration. Essentially, the Fed will likely hold steady in January. Actually, we can view the three rate meetings in January, March, and April as a whole. Personally, I expect Powell might only make one rate cut before leaving office at most. Any further rate cuts will depend on the actions of the new chair after taking office.
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