Phyrex|1月 09, 2026 22:33
Today's homework is pretty good. The focus today is on non farm payroll data. The actual results show that the unemployment rate is lower than before, lower than expected. Although the increase in non farm payroll is less than expected, it also indicates that the resilience of the US economy is still good. The decline in labor force in November is likely a short-term behavior, but it also makes the market expect that the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2026 may not be significant.
But after the replacement of the Federal Reserve Chairman in 2026, the market has not yet started pricing, and it still depends on the cooperation within the Federal Reserve. The June interest rate meeting may be the most important one this year, but the market itself expects the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates twice in 2026, so today's data cannot be considered negative, but has increased the strength of the US economy. This is consistent with the good and bad data I mentioned yesterday.
In addition, today's highlight should have been the ruling of the Supreme Court on Trump's tariff, but it was postponed to January 14, probably because the Supreme Court would not support Trump's tariff, but the Trump team has also figured out a replacement plan. Generally speaking, the market is still relatively normal.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the turnover has slightly increased, which is considered to be around the normal value. After New Year's Day, the turnover rate and trading volume have both slightly increased. Before, it felt like it was about to enter garbage time, but now it doesn't feel like it. Although there has been some deviation in the trend of the US stock market, with the rise of the US stock market, the price of BTC has still risen from the previous fluctuation range of $88000 to the fluctuation range of $90000.
Starting tomorrow is the weekend, and although Bitcoin feels weak in climbing, it has not yet returned to below $90000, indicating that there is currently a consensus among investors regarding $90000. The current focus still depends on the US monetary policy, and as long as there are no issues over the weekend, it is sufficient.
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