Phyrex
Phyrex|Jan 09, 2026 18:26
The friends who are still waiting for the Supreme Court's ruling can now wash up and sleep, which has been delayed until January 14th. Moreover, the Trump government is also preparing an alternative plan when tariffs are overturned. If the Supreme Court decides to oppose the President's global tariffs, the Trump government has an alternative plan, which uses other laws, including Articles 301 and 122 of the Trade Law, to authorize the restoration of tariffs. The upper limit of the 122 tax rate is 15%, and the law clearly stipulates that the maximum import surcharge levied according to Article 122 shall not exceed 15%. If Trump plans to use IEEPA to levy 20% or 60% tariff (for China), it will be cut to 15% immediately after switching to Article 122. Until the 301 investigation follows and fills in the remaining parts. So, the combination of Article 301 and Article 122 will be more complex than the original IEEPA in terms of operation. IEEPA can adjust tariffs for all countries at once, but after switching to 301 or 122, tariffs will change from "one click adjustment by the president" to "execution according to procedures", which will bring several very realistic changes: Firstly, the coverage area will be forced to narrow. IEEPA can be made into a global, one-time, and unified tariff tool, while the logic of 301 revolves around unfair trade practices and is more suitable for a list based crackdown of "country+category+tariff number", rather than a one size fits all approach to all countries. Secondly, 301 requires investigation, argumentation, hearing, and listing, which is significantly slower in procedure. Although 122 can be faster, it is essentially a short-term transitional tool, so the more likely path is to first use 122 to relay and then gradually switch to 301. Considering that the White House government may have already completed the steps of this 301 investigation, the switch may be faster. Thirdly, IEEPA is more inclined towards political tools, and the game space for enterprises is limited. However, 301 and 122 are more technical in execution, which provides certain operational space for enterprises. This means that the short-term impact after switching may be weaker than IEEPA, but in the long run, it will be more reflected in continuous friction at the cost structure and supply chain level. Overall, tariffs may not necessarily decrease after the switch, but they will become finer and more predictable. The short-term emotional impact on the market may have eased, but in the medium to long term, the difference from IEEPA is more reflected in "form" and "rhythm" rather than direction. @bitget VIP, Lower rates and more generous benefits
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