大老师Bugsbunny |DRAM UP only|Jan 09, 2026 10:15
The annual weight rebalancing of Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) ended yesterday
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What is BCOM? It is one of the most important commodity investment benchmarks in the world, like a "commodity investment basket" that includes multiple types of assets such as gold, silver, crude oil, agricultural products, etc. Currently, more than 10 billion yuan of funds worldwide are invested according to the allocation ratio of this basket.
So this year's BCOM weight adjustment has become the biggest factor affecting precious metals, and this year's weight adjustment has put a lot of pressure on the holdings of gold and silver.
According to the plan released by Bloomberg, the weight of gold in the index has significantly decreased from 20.4% to 14.9%, and the weight of silver has halved from 9.6% to 3.94%.
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What does this mean?
Passive funds that trade with BCOM must sell a large amount of their gold and silver holdings during the adjustment window from January 8th to 14th, in order to reduce their new holdings to the target level.
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How much selling pressure is this? According to Deutsche Bank's estimation, about 6800 tons of gold will be sold within 5 days, which may lead to a 2.5% -3% drop in gold prices; The selling pressure on silver is also quite alarming, with a silver selling pressure of $7.7 billion expected to appear in the market in the near future, equivalent to 13% of the current COMEX silver market OI
However, the clear conclusion here is that this is almost definitely a technical adjustment rather than a shift in pricing trends, and investors can still focus on allocating precious metals such as gold and silver during this correction. And the risk of this pullback is almost entirely expected, including the adjustment of the margin ratio for precious metal positions in December.
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The logic that supports the long-term trend of gold remains fundamentally unchanged
The uncertainty of global geopolitics, the sustained demand for central banks to purchase gold, and the opening of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle all provide strong underlying logical support for gold.
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This pullback is almost the best time to buy gold, and this is the final conclusion
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