From the weekly trend of BTC, the structure of long bull and slow bull is relatively stable! The blue trend line supports the price, and now it is hovering around 91k. The bottom of the weekly red circle is consolidating, with a high probability of market washout. However, the overall bullish structure has not broken, and there is strong support below. From the analysis of technical indicators, the 50 day MA is around 88k, the 200 day MA is around 75k, the golden cross is still present, the RSI is neutral and bullish at 55-60, not overbought, the MACD column narrows but there is no dead cross, momentum weakens but there is no reversal. Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at 85k, 50% at 75k, coincides with the lower track of the channel, 61.8% above at 110k, and 100% can reach 140k-150k. On the US stock market side, S&P rose 16% last year, Nasdaq19%， In 2026, it is expected that GDP will be 2.6%, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 2-3 times, AI investment will be hot, and the S&P target will be 7k-7.8k. If Nasdaq continues to lead the way, BTC's high correlation will definitely follow suit, but if there is a risk of recession (35% probability), a short-term correction is normal, but it will not collapse. The trend for the next 3-6 months: In the short term, there is a 70% probability of a rebound after a 1-3 month oscillation and correction, with the possibility of hitting the bottom at 85k-88k and then surging to 95k-100k. Accelerate the upward trend in the mid-term 3-6 months, with a target of 110000-130000 yuan and an optimistic 150000 yuan. If the US stock market remains stable, BTC will not be able to run smoothly in the first half of the year, but don't FOMO, it is an opportunity to fall back. Key support: 85k-88k (lower track of the channel), secondary 80k, resistance 95k-100k, the trend is still mainly oscillating upward, don't worry, don't worry about falling, the bottom will rise! OKX