Damn it, the recent trend of Bitcoin is really disgusting. It's not the kind of disgusting feeling of 'plummeting and frightening', but rather A mountain of good news piled up, but prices fell first That kind of disgusting. All you see is good news: New ETF application, institutional adoption, compliance, allocation ratio, Wall Street entry. But all you see in your account is one thing: BTC went from 95000 and slowly fell back to 90000. Many people's first reaction is: Is there a black swan somewhere Is there any insider information Is someone smashing the plate I'll give you a more cruel and truthful answer—— It's not a black swan, it's expected to be liquidated. Let's first look at the least romantic but most important data. In the past two days, US stock spot Bitcoin ETFs: A net outflow of approximately 486 million US dollars per day, A net outflow of approximately 240 million US dollars per day. And just a few days ago: Daily net inflows of 500 million and 700 million. What does it mean? Meaning: The batch of marginal buying orders that pushed BTC up to 95000, Already started—— I sold you the backhand. Do you think they are 'continuing to look at how long the value will last', But what they really do is only one thing: When you are most willing to accept, hand over the position. Another fact that many people are unwilling to admit: The denser the positive news, the more dangerous it is in the short term. Morgan Stanley plans to develop BTC, ETH, and SOL related ETFs. Bank of America allows advisors to recommend 1-4% Bitcoin allocation. JPMorgan Chase has started accepting BTC and ETH as collateral loans. A group of traditional institutions suddenly began to collectively become 'crypto friendly'. Are these long-term benefits? Yes, it is. But for the short term, they also have another identity: A perfect stage for liquidity. When a market starts to make you feel: This time is really different, Even they have come, It shouldn't drop sharply again, That often means—— The person who should be sold has already waited for the opponent's offer. Many people are still discussing the "temporary relief" of MSTR and MSCI risks. But I have to remind you of one thing: The risk has not disappeared, it has been delayed. And the thing that institutions are best at doing is: Before the risk is truly implemented, Lower the position first. Because for institutions, Earning less is always better than stepping on a thunderbolt once. Next, it's the things that have been dominating the market these past few days, It is also the most easily overlooked part for retail investors: Event risks are starting to pile up together. one ️⃣ On January 10th, the US Supreme Court will make a ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs. The market is pricing a very extreme but cannot be ignored possibility: Once it is determined to be illegal, It involves billions of dollars in tax refunds and fiscal shocks. two ️⃣ At the end of this month, the US government is facing the risk of another shutdown. How did the last market shutdown go, Everyone has a shadow in their hearts. three ️⃣ The employment data is not bad, The expectation of interest rate cuts in January continues to decline. And Japan's interest rate hike may continue In this environment, No institution would be willing to bet on "everything goes smoothly in the world" at a position of 95000 yuan. Add another one that everyone doesn't say But the real factors at the financial level are: The inertia of a four-year cycle. Until now, There is still a large amount of funding available Whether you agree or not Firmly believe in the four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin. If mapped periodically: This round of 2026, In the hearts of many people, This corresponds to the previous round of 2022. And what year is 2022? It was a bear market year, It has been a year of continuous rebound, It is also a year where every rebound will eventually be sold. This will bring a very realistic result: Even if the fundamentals are already changing, Even if the institution is really entering, Many funds still choose to run first due to "historical memory" and "path dependence". Not because they are not optimistic about the future, But it's because they repeatedly ask themselves a question in their hearts: What if it's this time or 2022 So you will see a subtle But a very real phenomenon: As soon as the price rebounds, some people will reduce their holdings; As soon as the price rises, someone will cash in. This is not an emotion, This is inertia. Add another one that everyone understands But things that I am not willing to elaborate on: Geopolitical risk. Trump's recent expansionary political action Sanctions, oil tankers, and the probability of conflict are on the rise, The pricing of various extreme events is rising simultaneously. History has repeatedly proven one thing: Whenever geopolitical risks escalate, the market's first reaction is to sell high volatility assets. And Bitcoin, In the short term, Still the one with the biggest fluctuation.