Murphy|Jan 08, 2026 11:10
We can also observe changes in on-site demand through a set of Binance open (free and effective) data:
In Binance Wealth Management, investors' income from holding BFUSD comes from Binance's adoption of the Delta neutral strategy, which involves hedging contract and spot positions to earn funding fees. Therefore, the level of return depends on whether the bulls are willing to pay more directional premiums.
Another stablecoin investment is RWUSD, which generates revenue from Binance operations and tokenized US bonds/real-world assets; So the 3.86% yield given is almost long-term stable; The return of BFUSD fluctuates up and down.
Therefore, we can summarize the following three points:
(Figure 3)
1. We can use the RWUSD yield as the cost standard for funds. If the BFUSD yield is lower than RWUSD, it indicates that the current market bullish sentiment is cautious and unwilling to leverage to pay directional premiums. In recent days, the BFUSD yield has been around 3.5% -4%, slightly higher than RWUSD.
2. The current total supply of BFUSD is 1.95 billion US dollars, with a low of 1.86 billion US dollars on December 29th; The larger the supply, the lower the risk appetite of the funds on the exchange, and they are unwilling to bet on odds and are more willing to obtain stable breakeven returns (exceeding US bond yields).
3. The exchange rate of USDC/USDT dropped from a high of 1.0015 on January 1st to a low of 0.9997 on January 6th, indicating a stronger demand for USDT during this period. A large amount of USDC was exchanged for USDT, leading to a significant drop in the exchange rate.
We consider the increase in demand for USDT as a side manifestation of the increase in purchasing power within the market! However, on January 7th, the exchange rate of USDC/USDT began to rise again to 1.0005, indicating a decrease in demand for USDT and some funds returning to USDC.
Overall, based on our comprehensive observation of wealth management returns, fund flows, and stablecoin exchange behavior, the current situation seems more like an "early stage of emotional recovery", where purchasing power has not disappeared, but bulls are still cautious. Perhaps in the process of taking three steps and taking two steps back, the market is still waiting for a clearer signal to decide whether to accelerate again or continue to digest horizontally.
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink