Review of recent data and reflection on current market trends As we previously anticipated, when LTH's profit to loss ratio drops to a certain extent, their distribution behavior will slow down or even stop. At present, LTH has achieved a profit loss ratio that has dropped to the lowest point of this cycle (as shown in Figure 1), just one step away from the breakeven line (red line). If it is even lower, it means that even long-term chips will be sold at a loss, which is clearly something LTH is unwilling to accept. (Figure 1) After December 13th, the scale of long-term chip distribution began to decline (as shown in Figure 2). At the same time, BTC gradually stabilized and began to rebound after a second retracement of $8.5w on December 18th. Therefore, I believe that the current market is based on the premise of "emotional repair+low selling pressure", rather than being driven by "strong demand". (Figure 2) Investors' risk appetite is still relatively low, as we can see from the BTC new investor supply data in Figure 3: the positive side is that the supply of new buyers has plummeted sharply since 2025.10.24 and has now stopped falling, even increasing in some periods, indicating that new investors are starting to try to enter. But the downside is that the overall holdings are relatively low, with a total of 3870000 pieces currently held, which is still significantly lower than the 420w pieces held in April 25. (Figure 3) If we combine yesterday's tweet on Binance exchange BTC balance and data on the scale of large fund transfers, we can more clearly sort out the logic behind it. This is also the fundamental reason why I believe that 'BTC is unlikely to replicate the path of BTC's direct trend reversal after April 25'. Article link: https://((x.com))/Murphychen888/status/20088280705061644399 I explained the triple demand of BTC in my tweet on January 6th, where Conviction Buyers (CB) create the lowest level of consensus demand; First Buyers (FB) provides fresh blood and undertakes over distribution; Due to the weakening of "excessive distribution" now, even FB is not strong, and with the help of CB, BTC can gradually stabilize and rebound, but it is not enough to reverse the trend, that is, it is not yet time to "call the bull back". Article link: https://((x.com))/Murphychen888/status/2008383898313719980 Of course, there are also "strong rebounds" and "weak rebounds". If only the external conditions of "emotional repair+low selling pressure" are met, then I believe the probability of a "weak rebound" is higher. But if the demand can quickly return, such as the emergence of FB running in, a significant decrease in BTC balance on the exchange, and large-scale investors frantically transferring out, then the conditions for a "strong rebound" are considered to be met. If it is a weak rebound, what is the possible price range for the rebound? In a tweet on January 4th, it was mentioned that $87000 is the highest pillar on URPD and has been proven to be effective in providing support. Therefore, my personal judgment is that a rebound range between $92000 and $104000 is a reasonable range. And now it just touched and fell down again, indicating that there is resistance above and the support below needs to be retested. (Article link: https://((x.com))/Murphychen888/status/200766197462539093) (Figure 4) From the perspective of the capital structure of the options market, since the expiration of the day long options on December 26th, the Long Gamma structure of market makers is currently being re established at $87000- $92000 and $82000- $87000. That is to say, as the BTC price approaches $87000, market makers, in order to balance their exposure to gamma risk, will mechanically encourage them to buy to maintain hedging, thus forming a support effect. Similarly, if it falls below $82000, market makers holding Short Gamma structures will actually accelerate the decline in the market. Therefore, I do not currently believe that this rebound will end after reaching the high point of $94789. Although it has indeed entered the range we defined earlier, subjectively speaking, even if it is a "weak rebound", it is not so "weak". I am more inclined to test the bottom consensus multiple times under the condition of "low selling pressure+weak demand", and gradually recover lost ground through the rhythm of advancing three and retreating two. However, if BTC falls below $87000, or even $82000, this viewpoint will be overturned and reconsidered based on the actual situation at that time. ------------------------------------ Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits