The market entered the year with a strong rally, but caution is now warranted. MSCI yesterday confirmed it will not exclude Strategy (MSTR) from its indexes, a meaningful positive catalyst. Exclusion would have forced not only Strategy, but potentially other Digital Asset Treasury companies, to lose billions in capital inflows, undermining their capital-raising capacity to acquire additional Bitcoin. Despite this, Bitcoin failed to produce a follow-through rally. Failing to rally in such a positive headline is a warning signal. #BTC is also facing a critical test at the 50-week moving average (around $101,500), a level widely used to distinguish bull versus bear. Only a decisive break above could invalidate four-year cycle bear-market theories in 2026. #Bitcoin(BloFin Research)