TraderS | 缺德道人|1月 07, 2026 04:49
Comparing Japan and South Korea is super interesting. On one side, South Korea is ditching Yoon Suk-yeol and actively leaning toward China, while on the other side, Japan is bringing in Sanae Takaichi to confront China. China's tightening of export controls on dual-use items to Japan is essentially the first step of real sanctions. Framing it as a military-related move leaves no room for criticism. Not only can it slow down Japan's militarization, but the bigger goal is to work with the U.S. to dismantle Japan's industrial chain. The ultimate aim is for China, the U.S., and South Korea to carve up Japan's industries.
Japan is actually well aware of this. In the recent Venezuela incident, people across the political spectrum in Japan—left, center, and right—opposed it, fearing the boomerang effect might hit them. But their earlier ban on exporting photoresist already gave China a reason to impose sanctions. Now, it seems like there's no turning back.
If this logic holds, the most important signals to watch right now are the yen exchange rate and the capital flows of Japan's major trading companies (the Big Five). If these companies start accelerating the sell-off of domestic Japanese assets to invest overseas, it means Japan's financial conglomerates have also realized this 'carve-up game.'
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