Trump administration's tariff revenue weakens, low inflation boosts US stock sentiment According to BlockBeats, on January 6th, the latest data showed that inflation pressure in the United States was significantly lower than market expectations. The latest CPI released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is 2.7%, significantly lower than Wall Street's previous consensus forecast of 3.1%, which surprised the market. Since Trump announced the implementation of the "Liberation Day" tariffs in April last year, the market generally expects the tariffs to push up inflation. However, two recent studies by the San Francisco Federal Reserve point out that historical experience shows that tariffs have not triggered large-scale inflation outbreaks, as importers have significantly diluted their actual tax rates by transferring supply chains, avoiding tariffs, and negotiating exemptions with countries. Research suggests that tariffs have a more pronounced negative impact on economic growth and employment, but their push up on inflation is much lower than expected. The Pantheon Macroeconomics report shows that US tariff revenues have begun to decline: ·Peak in October: $34.2 billion ·November: 32.9 billion US dollars ·December: 30.2 billion US dollars Analysts point out that the current average effective tariff rate in the United States is about 12%. According to institutional calculations, the impact of tariffs on personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation is about 0.9 percentage points, of which 0.4 percentage points have already been absorbed by the market. The main inflation shock may have passed, and the core PCE is expected to approach the 2% target within the year. The lower than expected tariff revenue has also weakened the fiscal space of the US government. Finance Minister Besson previously estimated that tariffs could bring in revenue of 500 billion to nearly 1 trillion US dollars, but independent agency estimates show that tariff revenue in 2025 may only be 261 billion to 288 billion US dollars. At present, the cumulative deficit of the United States in fiscal year 2026 has reached $439 billion, and the total amount of treasury bond has exceeded $38.5 trillion. As tariff revenues decline, the sustainability of Trump's proposed "Trump Account" and nationwide cash subsidy program is facing challenges.