2026 is not 2022! The four-year cycle is dead, and the real danger in this round is not the bear market Put the conclusion at the forefront first to save time: I don't think 2026 will repeat 2022. Be more specific—— This bull market is likely to be stretched out, and the true peak of the phase is more likely to occur in 2027. What is truly dangerous is never a bear market, But you are still using the cognitive model of 2022 to determine a market that has already been written into the balance sheet. Many people automatically play a PTSD video when they mention 2026: Four year cycle Cow to Bear Thunderstorm Liquidity drain Bitcoin cuts back and forth But the problem is: Is 2022 really a 'natural downward cycle'? Absolutely not. 2022 will be a comprehensive collapse of a systemic hollowing out of the financial structure. 1、 Returning to January 2022 What is the performance of BTC? Starting to decline in the first week From 46000 yuan to 33000 yuan No decent rebound The market consensus has only one sentence: This time is different And then what happened? LUNA Thunderstorm 3AC Thunderstorm FTX Thunderstorm It has been declining almost all year, By November, BTC will reach 15000. That's not a bear market, That is a system built on high leverage, mutual staking, and false liquidity, forcibly liquidated by reality. 2、 Let's take a look at 2026 now The first week's pancake has risen from 8w7 to nearly 9w5 Of course, I do not shy away from negative news, it is real and there are many: In mid January, MSTR may be proposed as an MSCI index The probability of the US government shutting down again at the end of January is not low By the end of 2025, many DAT companies have started selling cryptocurrency assets to repurchase stocks If the market is not awesome, it is completely possible to continue thundering The primary market is extremely sluggish No one has even invested in Sonar star projects like Infinex There is no new narrative On chain is retail PVP CEX knockoff has no liquidity, like a 'living corpse' Add another severely underestimated bearish factor: 2026 is the year of AI super IPO. OpenAI、Anthropic、Databricks， On the encryption side, there are also OKX, Kraken, and Upbit. The siphon effect must exist, there is no need to deny it. 3、 But the key is not in the negative, but in 'whose money belongs' Who is buying in 2022? VC Highly leveraged institutions Pledge your left hand with your right hand, then borrow money with your right hand Once liquidity is cut off, the entire line will explode. And now what? Wall Street is promoting asset tokenization Sovereign funds are starting to low-key and establish long-term positions The institution that least supports encryption has also opened up a purchasing channel for customers Bank of America allows wealth advisors to advise clients on allocating 1-4% of cryptocurrency assets This is no longer a speculative issue, This is a change in asset allocation structure. 4、 A detail that many people overlook: ETH staking The current state is very clear: Almost no withdrawal from the pledge queue Adding new pledges actually requires queuing up This does not represent short-term sentiment, But it's a very simple signal: The holder is not in a hurry to sell what's more: BMNR has started pledging ETH DAT Company Upgrades from 'Holding' to 'Locking' This kind of behavior does not exist in 2022. 5、 Political variables are the biggest cheat of this round I will directly state the conclusion. The Trump administration is the most underestimated variable in this cycle. Events that have already occurred or have a high probability of occurring include: Capture Maduro Confiscated encrypted assets promise not to sell The actual effect is equivalent to locking the warehouse The dovish Federal Reserve Chairman takes office Monetary conditions will only become wider in the second half of the year Spring cash refund $2000 per household Crypto regulation shifts from 'suppression' to 'release' meanwhile: BlackRock founder has publicly stated Sovereign funds are secretly buying coins The most anti encryption institution in the United States We have also opened up an encryption configuration channel for customers When such words can be spoken publicly, Things usually have been happening for some time. 6、 So, is the four-year cycle still established? My judgment is very clear: The four-year encryption cycle has expired. It's not because the market doesn't fluctuate, But because—— Encryption has been integrated into the traditional financial system. ETF、 Banking channels, wealth advisors, sovereign funds, and balance sheets. Once these things appear, The market is no longer just a cycle of emotions. More like the Internet in the late 1990s: There is callback, foam and cleaning, But the main trend has been forcibly stretched by policies and capital. 7、 Let's make the conclusion clearer I'll speak my mind: This bull market is likely to be dragged into 2027 or even later. If there is a periodic peak, it is more likely to occur in 2027 rather than 2026. There are only two true uncertainties: one ️⃣ How much can Bitcoin ultimately rise to? No one knows, this is an unknown variable. two ️⃣ Will the shanzhai season still be like 'chickens and dogs ascending to heaven'? The answer is: can't. But that doesn't mean the knockoff doesn't have a chance. 8、 This round, there will only be 'structural knockoffs' Projects that can still increase must have real logic: Has practical use Being able to break away from pure picture cakes Being able to make profits in the real financial system The core direction is very concentrated: Tokenization/RWA Stablecoins and DeFi related to stablecoins DeFi protocol with cash flow and profitability As a predictive market for future infrastructure Their upward logic is not emotions, But it is truly being used, connected, and needed. And what about other knockoffs? It won't go to zero overnight, But it will be gradually eliminated by time: No users No liquidity No developers No business model Finally, there is only one price chart left, Prove that someone once painted cakes here. 9、 The last sentence What will be killed in 2022 is faith. From 2026 to 2027, the projects that are being phased out are those without business logic and those that are stuck in the old cycle. The real risk in this round, It has never been a price fluctuation, But you are still using the map of the 'pancake era', Find a market that has already entered the financial system. Which side are you on, The decision is not about opinions, But it's your position in this cycle.