TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Jan 05, 2026 13:59
Another day has passed since the arrest of Maduro in Venezuela, and more information has been disclosed on the market, but at the same time, there are also more doubts that are puzzling. And if you string these doubts together, you will find that this is not a war at all, but a carefully calculated "asset restructuring". That's why many military and political heavyweights overturned in this incident, while economic heavyweights generally predicted more accurately. Looking back at the entire process, there are three details that go against military common sense and human nature, which are really eye-catching: 1. The Venezuelan military did not resist effectively at all, only Maduro's close security personnel (or some Cuban military personnel) resisted. The US helicopter leisurely flew over to capture, it was as calm as catching speeding on the highway. If it weren't for internal cooperation, it wouldn't have been possible. What does this mean? It indicates that the senior military officials in Venezuela have already collectively abandoned Maduro. Secondly, Maduro is still saying "Happy New Year" and "Goodnight" to his captors in the United States, seemingly casually like taking a stroll. He is much more calm and composed than Saddam Gaddafi did back then, perhaps because he had long anticipated this. He knew he wouldn't die, and even knew where he was going to enjoy his retirement life. This phrase 'Happy New Year' is more like a confirmation of completing a transaction. Third, the opposition did not come to power. The former Vice President took over and quickly and in fact surrendered to Trump. American oil capital is expected to take over Venezuela's oil fields completely. Why use Vice President? Because Trump is a businessman, he wants the oil field to resume production immediately, not the political cleansing and civil war after the opposition came to power. Retaining the original team and replacing only a compliant CEO is the most cost-effective way to take over. So, the rumors in the community are likely true: this is a systematic sale. Under the increasing pressure from the United States to arrest fishing boats and seize oil tankers, the real power faction in Venezuela (military+bureaucrats) packaged Maduro and sold him for a good price, in exchange for their own security and the continued operation of the state machinery. And Trump can also respectfully call it a day if he gets the symbolic token of Maduro. Otherwise, it would be hard to convince the people inside if the labor division's expedition has not been successful for so long. For Trump, this is undoubtedly the biggest victory since he took office. With this injection of chicken blood, MAGA's basic plate immediately boiled, and the United States seemed to have returned to its peak overnight. Acquiring Venezuela not only allows it to occupy the world's largest crude oil reserves, but also enables it to form a closed-loop industrial chain with the US domestic light crude oil reserves for heavy oil. However, heavy oil has more chemical applications and fuel oil production is not as good as light oil. And the world's largest demand for petrochemical raw materials is China, which means that Venezuela's oil resources have only changed to a middleman, and raw materials will eventually flow to China. At the same time, Venezuela also has abundant reserves of gold, silver, copper, and lithium, which play an important role in the AI driven globalization 2.0 era. This is also an important reason why Trump repeatedly expressed his ambition for Canada, Greenland and other places. No matter how successful the tactics are, this action by the United States is morally wrong. Whether compared to the Prague Spring of the Soviet Union or the reactions of traditional American allies and countries around the world, it is consuming the political credibility of the United States, lowering the political bottom line, accelerating the world into a bottomless era of chaos, and accelerating the global retreat from a civilized society to a jungle society. In the long run, this is not a good thing. It has a strong side effect, which means that Trump uses the resources of the United States to create momentum for his party's election. The United States has also been downgraded from a rule maker to an action executor. Similarly, if the United States is doing its first year, don't blame China for doing its fifteenth year in the future. After Maduro was arrested, there were online calls to arrest Gao Shi Zaomiao, Lai Qingde, and even Marcos from the Philippines. Not to mention whether China will do this in the future, the political tacit understanding and psychological pressure caused by this alone are enough for leaders of various countries to weigh in the future.
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