DC大于C|1月 04, 2026 03:59
The biggest news of the weekend was Venezuela's actions, although this event occurred quickly and ended quickly, especially with the US stock market not opening over the weekend, and the impact on Bitcoin was not significant.
And BTC also broke through 90500 this morning. On weekends, it is possible to avoid the impact on the risk market. But is there a possibility of an increase in the future? Or the impact on Trump? To be observed
Of course, our focus is on the impact on BTC, which may have to wait until tomorrow Monday, the first working day of 2026 in the United States, when emotional attention rises and the US stock market opens, to see further market reactions.
As the saying goes, the market is always right. Sometimes, we may think it's bad news for individuals, but the market thinks it's good news to interpret. In that case, we must follow the market. Cannot operate against the market.
Before discussing the URPD data again, let's analyze the net position changes of BTC on the exchange over the past year
This data refers to the balance changes of all exchange wallets every 30 days, with green representing a net increase in exchange balances over the past 30 days, and more BTC flowing into the exchange, which may be sold immediately or at an appropriate time.
Conversely, the red color represents a decrease in balance, with more BTC flowing out of the exchange, indicating a decrease in selling pressure.
So we can see that a large outflow of BTC from the exchange is the beginning of the expected price increase. That is to say, buying more is beneficial for price recovery.
As shown by the red bar on the far right of the picture, the outflow (buying) volume has been gradually increasing in recent days, and the corresponding price is also slowly recovering. However, compared to the previous red pillar, the outflow is not as large. But it is still an optimistic signal.
Looking at the URPD data again, the chips accumulated in 83-87 are slowly being depleted, and the chip accumulation in 87 is still the highest. The choice of direction is already quite clear.
But as we mentioned last night, it's still very early now, and after such geopolitical actions, it still depends on the sentiment of the US stock market tomorrow
Although I personally have a positive outlook on the rebound, there are still several key intervals that need to be noted. The support range has been mentioned multiple times, 83300-87000
Up, we need to break through several positions before we can count. First is 92100, which is marked in the chart. Then is the daily line suppression position of 94500 since the end of November
It is expected that the fluctuation of market sentiment will make the price trend clearer after the opening of stock index futures tomorrow.
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