Two key signals have appeared in the on-chain data: 1. Decline in chip concentration As of January 1, 2026, the chip concentration within a 5% range of BTC spot price reached 14.9%, just one step away from the high-risk volatility zone we mentioned. However, on January 2 and January 3, instead of increasing, it dropped further, now sitting at 14.5%. Meanwhile, BTC's price is slowly climbing. (Figure 1) Although chip concentration only affects volatility and doesn't directly indicate direction, historical data reveals a hidden pattern: when concentration starts to turn downward, it tends to follow BTC's price trend. Simply put, if the decline in concentration is caused by BTC's price rising, then during the continued decline, BTC is likely to maintain its upward price trend—and vice versa. 2. Effective chip structure support Currently, URPD data shows that 822,000 BTC have accumulated at $87,000; there’s significant disagreement between bulls and bears at this level, and after intense battles, a winner is gradually emerging. (Figure 2) When the turnover level starts shifting to the right, it proves that the massive volume bar at the highest point on the current URPD chart is providing effective support. Therefore, my personal judgment is that the reasonable range for movement is between $92,000 and $104,000. I also clearly mentioned this in my December 26 tweet. Interested friends can revisit the analysis here: https://(x.com)/Murphychen888/status/2004405139202019712 (Figure 3) Combining this with yesterday’s tweet: from a technical indicator perspective, when the daily K-line closes above the descending trendline ($90,588), it signals the start of the anticipated rebound—and this condition has already been met. That said, I noticed some friends in the comments yesterday mentioning the possibility of a false breakout. While this risk cannot be ruled out, based on the current data and indicators, I personally believe the probability of a genuine rebound is higher than that of a false breakout followed by further decline. Unless, during this process, BTC breaks below the effective support level at $87,000, falls back under the descending trendline, and chip concentration starts rising again—then we’ll need to reassess. ----------------------------------------- Bitget VIP: Lower fees, bigger perks!