qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Jan 04, 2026 01:40
The impact of yesterday's Venezuela operation by the U.S. on the market: Last night, we talked about the operation that started and ended quickly. Its impact on the market was still minimal. The market loves swift actions, and this time Trump seems to have minimized uncertainty to the lowest level. Gotta say, Trump is getting skilled at this—big operations scheduled over the weekend allow the market to fully digest the news and reduce shocks. The last weekend operation was on June 22 last year, when the U.S. bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. On Monday, June 23, the market's biggest concern was Iran's retaliation, leading to a dip in the night session. That evening, Iran retaliated with a few missiles targeting the U.S. base in Qatar, but the attack intensity was low and pre-announced. The market breathed a sigh of relief, and even the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t blocked. Turns out Iran just wanted to save face. Oil prices plummeted, the market rebounded, and there was an implicit meaning at the time: confidence in U.S. assets began to recover (after the tariff war in April, there were doubts about whether the U.S. could continue leading globally). This Venezuela operation will also boost confidence in U.S. assets. Simply put, leadership still requires the backing of national power, and swift actions that reduce uncertainty are always market-friendly. The direct beneficiaries are U.S. oil giants and the defense sector. The next key point is determining Venezuela’s new president. Based on Trump’s latest statement, it’s clearly aimed at the current power players in Venezuela’s regime, including the vice president: “I just want to take down Maduro, not all of you. As long as you cooperate and follow orders, you can continue to govern.” This kind of deterrence against the existing ruling system forces them to cooperate, which has its advantages: it creates less turmoil, requires less effort, and might even achieve a smooth transition. Now it’s up to Trump’s strategy to see if it works.
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