When will I choose to take action? 1. Enough time: Since November 22, the market has been oscillating within a range without breaking above or below the boundaries. Last time, I compared it to April this year, but since the 3-day line broke below the 100MA, the situation has changed. In April, it stopped falling above the 100MA and only needed a month to correct. This time, it fell below the 230MA, so 1/10 of the corresponding time is 69 days, which would be the end of January. Of course, with so many seasoned traders now, early moves are common, so there’s a higher chance of a breakout around mid-January. 2. Volume spike with a wick: Whether it was the summer after May 19th a year ago, the second sell-off during the 2022 bear market rebound, or April this year, there’s always been a volume spike with a wick before a new upward trend on the daily chart or higher. Also, there are still many trapped positions around 11-12w that haven’t surrendered yet. Some will give up during prolonged consolidation, but there always needs to be one final blow to completely force the bulls to capitulate. So, I’m still waiting for one more sharp drop (Scenario 1: U.S. stocks haven’t fully bottomed out yet, which supports the need for further downside). Of course, nothing is absolute in the market. If it starts going up from here (Scenario 2), I’ll reduce my long positions while holding onto my short positions to ride out the entire bear market. #trading Original content, copycats can go to hell.