Explain the logic of gold in one breath (completed) What are the factors that influence the human consensus on gold, which is variable and not constant? Currency, finance, and hedging. 01/Real currency As mentioned earlier, there are currently three types of currencies: physical currency, credit currency, and virtual currency. The mainstream use is a credit currency backed by government taxes from various countries - banknotes. And gold is increasingly becoming a multipolar (anti globalization) physical currency in the world. It should be noted that the world's largest gold buyers are not civilians, but central banks of various countries (including the United States). Virtual currency, on the other hand, is an "air currency" that has been banned by the Chinese government, and this year is a small year in four years. When you come out to mess around, you always have to pay it back. A few years ago, all countries were crazily printing money, using government borrowing to drive investment and construction, and maintain social prosperity. Isn't this another kind of "scroll"? Printing money, on the surface it appears that banknotes are constantly depreciating due to inflation, but in reality, there is another layer where the credit of various countries is declining. ——Banknotes represent credit, and currency depreciation and credit cannot be enhanced. So, when money is becoming increasingly worthless, what is valuable? The other two are physical currency and virtual currency, which have stable supply limits. In other words, it's not that gold and air coins have become valuable, but rather that they have retained their value after becoming worthless. You may say, but our prices haven't skyrocketed yet, why is money worthless? That's because the development of productivity is too fast, and the total demand for goods by humans is less than the total supply, resulting in a surplus of energy production (written upside down to prevent deletion). Currency currency, where goods are in front of the currency, moves with the goods. If there is too much currency, it depreciates, and the currency depreciates accordingly. Only physical and virtual currencies with limited supply can maintain their value. This is the relative change. And when countries reach a certain level of borrowing, the world shifts from printing money to borrowing money, exacerbating the shaking and collapse of credit and strengthening the consensus on expanding the other two competing currencies. From this perspective, What are the banknotes in our hands? It is the IOU that this world has given us, depreciating year by year. What is our wealth? The total amount of debt owed by this world is decreasing year by year. Animals should seek benefits and avoid harm, and intelligent humans learn to stick together in circles with a consensus on value preservation, at least the "IOU" has not depreciated. 02/Financial Leverage One sentence: Currently, the ratio of the value of physical gold to the total trading volume is 1:130. The 1 gram of gold held in hand is already being circulated as 130 grams in the trading market, and this principle is too complex to explain further. Perhaps you think it's not a big deal. Futures still have ten times leverage, and paper gold is just a piece of paper with a gold name on it. Changing hands 130 times is not a big deal. Wrong, completely wrong. Imagine if the house you purchased was only traded once, but it was traded over a hundred times in countless markets, or when over a hundred houses were being traded, how terrifying it would be! When housing prices rise, it means crushing all bears tenfold or hundredfold; When housing prices fall, it means crushing all bulls tenfold or hundredfold. Gold is like this, extremely high leverage will result in a large amount of rapidly expanding or rapidly declining capital for every fluctuation. When most central banks buy gold in a targeted manner regardless of wind and rain, there will be extreme spot pressure. Run on the bank, now often referred to as running on others, means the behavior of using words that are not very unpleasant to criticize or ridicule. But in fact, the initial meaning of a run on the bank was the act of all holders of precious metal exchange coupons going to the bank to exchange for real gold and silver. What does it mean? Assuming you have a piece of paper gold with a denomination of 100 grams, others may also have more. There are N tons of gold stored in the bank's vault, but it remains in the vault all year round, resulting in low circulation efficiency. So he sent out various financial products worth 130N tons for daily transactions. But one day, everyone started picking up the goods, and this N became N-1, N-2, N-x... less and less, so you panicked. The deadline for picking up N tons of gold was first come, first served. So you hurriedly went to pick up the spot gold and found that the entrance of the bank was crowded with people, all vying for the opportunity, afraid that the paper in your hands would turn into waste paper. This has led to the possibility of spot goods being sold out and banks closing down. In the past, when banks had insufficient reserves and were forced to close down due to cash withdrawals, it was also a scenario where paper gold was exchanged for banknotes and gold was exchanged for reserves. In order to prevent the collapse of the money market (gold exchange), it is necessary to continuously replenish stocks from various sources. However, as mentioned earlier, there is a surplus of currencies and US dollars worldwide, and there is a frenzy to raise gold spot prices. This is the short selling of spot goods. I don't care how many financial tricks the US and UK have, they only need one move to kill him: buy him. The premise is that I have enough US dollars, which will eventually be exchanged for gold. As long as I have enough gold, the banker will not be the United States or the United Kingdom, but me. As long as I can hold onto the gold in my hand to the end, the winner is only me. Why do I have so many dollars? Because I have a large and good inventory, I have a surplus in foreign trade every year. This is Yang Mou. Not only are small countries forced to buy gold, but even the United States and Britain are buying themselves, and only neighboring countries are buying US bonds. Unless Ami doesn't want to be respectable again and raises the price of gold by more than twenty times, then I can help him become respectable. But due to the fact that our country's creed is not for hegemony, but for the liberation and unity of all mankind, we do not want the world to explode (whether in finance or physics), so we exercise extreme restraint and purchase in a moderate and orderly manner. Even the central bank's increase in gold holdings is not the fastest (but the most resolute, never selling or reducing holdings). Run on the bank is to force and exclude - to make things go in the direction one wants - to sell dollars and buy gold, to break the old financial order of dollar hegemony, to transition with gold, and to establish a decentralized digital currency financial new order, namely the RMB 3.0 version. What does the Silicon Valley Wall Street nouveau riche most want behind Trump? The new US dollar (digital dollar) anchored in gold replaces the old paper currency issued by the Federal Reserve, improves settlement efficiency, and takes the opportunity to default and reopen. 03/Geopolitical hedging The textbook has been revised, and peaceful development is no longer the theme of the times. Instead, it has been replaced by unprecedented changes and accelerated evolution. By seeking peace through struggle, peace exists. Cutting meat to feed tigers leads to peace. The United States has already shown its fangs by launching trade frictions, colluding with Western countries to contain China's development, and inciting confrontational sentiments. There is a saying that the United States has been an extremely pragmatic country since its founding, and coupled with its isolation from the global continent, it benefited from World War I. Johnson's arbitrary arrangement of post-war order led to the laying of landmines for World War II. During World War II, the United States once again profited. The United States achieved a comprehensive victory in the Cold War. When the GDP of a neighboring country reaches 70% of that of the United States, a square agreement directly shatters its great power dream. With the power of several strategic victories, dominating the 21st century is a conventional script. Unfortunately, there was a situation where the product could not be steamed until it was tender, boiled until it was cooked, pounded until it was ready, and stir fried until it was ready to explode. We had never dealt with it before, but as soon as we cooperated, we never expected that in forty years, our country would have taken control of the entire industrial chain. The United States wants to replicate the Plaza Accord again, but is our country, which has been independent and autonomous for sixty or seventy years, the kind of people who can be manipulated and exploited by neighboring countries? It can be said that apart from the Heat, the United States has almost exhausted all means and cannot win the victory. On the contrary, it is deeply mired in a credit crisis. Currently, the ratio of US Treasury size to US GDP for the whole year is 38.5/29.2=132%. According to Mr. Huang Qifan's calculation, if this ratio reaches 150%, the United States is in danger. Geopolitical competition is inevitable after equal strength, and it is not subject to anyone's will. If our country wins, it's okay, the whole world still has food to eat. If the United States wins this time, it will be difficult for the Chinese to have another opportunity. Why is the original statement from the top management in 2025 that high-quality development is a battle for survival? Why should we vigorously promote new quality productivity? Why does technology have to be held in hand? Because the world, especially us, has already had enough of the days when technology pricing power was in the hands of the United States! Why can only exchange one plane for one billion pairs of socks? Why are countries divided into three, six, and nine categories? So the United States created ChatGPT and began to close the source and pay high fees, while we broke through with DeepSeek's open source and completely free approach. Ultimately, money is not important, capitalism is not important, and without it, capitalism is important. There are still many geopolitical issues to be discussed, such as the United States wanting to annex the entire Americas, the East wanting to control the Eastern Hemisphere, the Great Bear suppressing pressure swallowing up Eastern Ukraine, the Little Overlord sweeping across the Middle East, and the loose Europe facing the wind .. All in all, there is only one sentence: In troubled times, gold. summary Whether bearish or bullish on gold, why not ask yourself a few questions: ① Can the currency contract, how can the US debt crisis be resolved, can it be resolved? ② Can global geopolitical conflicts be eliminated and peace restored? ③ Has the cost of gold mining decreased and become less scarce? After answering these questions, you will have your own answers.