[Opinion: Bitcoin Records First Decline a Year After Halving, 'Four-Year Cycle' May Be Broken] BlockBeats News, January 1: Bitcoin closed 2025 with a price lower than at the beginning of the year, marking the first time in history that it recorded an annual decline a year after halving. This has sparked intense debate in the market over whether the 'Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle' has come to an end. Although the latest halving occurred in April 2024, BTC previously hit an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6 but subsequently experienced a sharp correction, now down more than 30% from its peak, with its annual performance weakening. Analysts pointed out that after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin reached new highs in the following year, but this pattern has not continued in the current cycle. Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, bluntly stated that Bitcoin closing down in the year following a halving signifies that the 'Four-Year Cycle is officially dead.' Investor Armando Pantoja believes that the introduction of ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheets has shifted Bitcoin away from being driven by retail sentiment. Instead, it is now more influenced by macro factors such as liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitics. However, there are differing opinions. Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, stated that the Four-Year Cycle still exists but is no longer driven solely by the 'programmatic halving' factor and is instead unfolding in a new form. The market's divergence over Bitcoin's long-term cycle structure continues to widen.