RamenPanda
RamenPanda|1月 01, 2026 04:04
JP Morgan: What a spectacular year it’s been for the world of precious metals. Volatility dominated the year-end market, driven primarily by thin liquidity and significant CME margin hikes. Although silver prices dropped about 9% today, the overall picture remains extraordinary: silver prices are up approximately 146% for the year, and gold prices are up about 64%. 2025 marks a structural shift in how gold and silver are perceived in global investment portfolios. This cycle is fundamentally different from previous ones. Rising global geopolitical and economic uncertainty is pushing central banks to view gold as a strategic reserve asset and a hedge against the dollar. Notably, according to data from the European Central Bank, gold has now become the second-largest reserve asset for central banks, surpassing the euro. According to the latest central bank survey by the World Gold Council, 75% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next five years. From my decades of experience working with central banks, I can tell you that price is not the primary factor in their decisions—policy, geopolitics, and internal stability are. When central banks decide to buy, they execute with unwavering determination. The story of silver is equally fascinating. It is increasingly being seen not just as a safe-haven hard asset but also as a strategically critical mineral (now under Section 232 review). The market faces a structural industrial shortage over the next four years, with mine supply expected to remain flat (according to Metals Focus data) while industrial demand continues to rise (according to Oxford Economics). Despite today’s 9% drop, the CME EFF collapsed by 64 cents in March (from +4 cents to -60 cents). Meanwhile, the London OTC market remains extremely tight, with deficits persisting for five years, implied lease rates ranging between 9-10% for 3-12 month terms, plus credit spreads. These are not signs of weakness but signals of structural pressure. Heading into 2026, the key question is not whether gold and silver are important, but whether portfolios are truly prepared for a world where fiat currency, liquidity, and stability can no longer be taken for granted.
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