Today is December 31st, BTC price is 88,578. I have a feeling that in the second half of this year, the major players have been intentionally controlling or compressing BTC's price. From the sell-side activity, it seems like most of it comes from short-term speculative funds and debt-related tokens like Mt. Gox claims. Core institutions, on the other hand, haven’t been selling but are actually net buyers (at least according to the data). The performance in the second half of the year doesn’t resemble tech stocks nor safe-haven assets like gold. Despite three rate cuts and ongoing QE, BTC hasn’t risen but has instead fallen. So, what exactly is BTC? Does the U.S. need BTC? The dollar desperately needs BTC. In a situation where trust in the dollar and U.S. bonds is declining and money printing continues, BTC serves as a perfect reservoir. Right now, it feels more like a test to deflate the bubble. Why do this? Maybe large institutions haven’t accumulated enough reserves yet, maybe they’re testing the consensus price for long-term holders to prepare for larger reserves, or maybe the timing just isn’t right yet. In any case, I can’t think of a reason why BTC would lose its value. For BTC to become a national reserve asset, it needs to shed its association with tech stocks, have safe-haven value, and maintain a stable price with a large enough market cap. Otherwise, without these attributes, BTC would just remain a risky asset that’s dispensable. Based on the current holdings of major institutions and the demand for the dollar, this contradiction is evident. It’s also not like the bear markets of 2018 or 2022 where BTC dropped 70% in one go. All the current clues point to a bigger conspiracy. See you in 2026.