DC大于C|Dec 31, 2025 01:01
Last day of '25! Still fluctuating around 88. Considering the low liquidity right now, it's not too bad.
This morning's Fed meeting minutes reiterated what was said before: in the first half of next year, there might be another inflation wave due to tariff negotiations. It's still not easy to get inflation back to 2% in the short term.
Also, the labor market shortage reflects that the economy isn't as strong as expected. The minutes stated: 'Some participants who supported or could have supported maintaining the target rate range believed that the substantial labor market and inflation data to be received during the intermeeting period would help assess whether a rate cut would be appropriate.'
However, the recent decision-making process faced challenges, meaning the January FOMC meeting might keep rates unchanged. The general direction still leans toward easing, but the timing and extent need further observation. If not in January, the next chance will be in March.
Tomorrow is New Year's Day, everyone's celebrating, and liquidity will be even lower. Hopefully, we can just ride out the fluctuations.
BTC's URPD data shows further accumulation around 87. On-chain sentiment remains relatively stable, with over 1.7 million coins accumulated between 84.5-87. All that's missing is a trigger to pick a direction. But we might need to get through the holidays first.
Looking at the longer trend, the pattern is still very similar to February-April this year and August-October last year. Continued fluctuations are inevitable.
Without new developments, staying above 83-87 would already be decent.
Wishing everyone an early Happy New Year! Promise me, babe, if you're crossing into the new year, don't cross onto someone else, okay?
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