The US Treasury yield curve is broadening: The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries is up to +65 basis points, near the highest since January 2022. The Treasury yield curve has now been positive for 15 months after the inversion ended in September 2024. Over this period, the 10-year note yield has increased +37 basis points, to 4.13%, while the 2-year Treasury yield has dropped -28 basis points, to 3.48%. Over the last century, most recessions began after the yield curve turned positive and continued to steepen for at least 9 months. This time, the curve is rising without an NBER-declared recession. Has the economy achieved a soft landing?(The Kobeissi Letter)