The crypto market's movements are nothing but tormenting—there’s really not much else to say. U.S. stocks are rising, and A-shares are doing pretty well too. Silver and gold have been hot topics lately. I’ve seen some folks discussing that if gold and silver crash, some funds might flow into the crypto market. But is it possible that this could actually drag the crypto market down again? Like a so-called gold and silver black swan event crashing the crypto market! The so-called capital inflow might not necessarily be a lifeline. Here are two mainstream market perspectives and the recent actual situation. You can compare and see for yourself. **Viewpoint 1: Yes, capital rotation, crypto takes the inflow** This perspective believes that market capital is fluid—when one pool dries up, it flows into another. The logic behind this view includes: - **Logic:** The recent surge in precious metals is seen as a short squeeze and unsustainable. Once prices reverse, profit-taking funds will look for the next destination. - **Expected direction:** Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as the core of the crypto market, are seen as the main potential inflow targets. **Viewpoint 2: No, risk resonance, all suffer together** This perspective argues that in the current environment, they’re more like comrades in misfortune rather than a seesaw. The main arguments include: - **2025’s actual performance:** Over the past year, gold and silver have soared (gold +70%, silver +140%), while Bitcoin has dropped about 6%. Funds didn’t flow from poorly performing crypto to well-performing precious metals; instead, there was a decoupling. - **Asset attribute changes:** Bitcoin’s performance has become more correlated with indices like the Nasdaq and other tech stocks, behaving more like a high-beta risk asset rather than digital gold. When global risk appetite declines, stocks and crypto may be sold off together. - **Historical linkage cases:** In October 2025, gold experienced a single-day drop of 7%, while Bitcoin also fell by about 10% during the same period. This suggests that under extreme market sentiment, the two may decline simultaneously. **Summary** In simple terms, the idea that Bitcoin will rise if precious metals crash seems more like a theoretical guess based on capital rotation. On the other hand, the idea that they might crash together is more supported by recent market trends. So, if you’re worried about a correction in precious metals, don’t just assume Bitcoin will be a safe haven. When panic spreads, anything considered a risk asset could be affected.