律动BlockBeats|12月 26, 2025 02:25
Review of Epic Option Delivery Market Trends in Previous Years: Significant Increase in Volatility, Often Embracing Unilateral Market Acceleration
BlockBeats News: On December 26th, at 16:00 today (UTC+8), Bitcoin welcomed its largest annual delivery in history of $23.7 billion. The market performance after quarterly deliveries in previous years is summarized as follows:
On December 29, 2023 (annual major delivery), with a nominal value of approximately $11 billion and a maximum pain point of approximately $42000.
Before expiration: The market is in an extremely depressed state, with prices trading in a narrow sideways range of $42000 to $43000.
After expiration: The "cage" that suppressed volatility disappeared, and BTC quickly broke through in volume in the following days, opening up a one-sided market trend towards $48000 in early 2024.
On March 29, 2024 (quarterly delivery), with a nominal value of approximately $15 billion and a maximum pain point of approximately $65000.
Before expiration: With the expectation of BTC halving in the market, the price fluctuated between $60000 and $70000, with high volatility and active hedging activities leading to short-term suppression.
After expiration: After the release of gamma hedge, BTC quickly broke through and pushed the price to a new high above $70000 on the eve of halving, opening the bull market acceleration phase.
On June 28, 2024 (quarterly delivery), with a nominal value of approximately $17 billion and a maximum pain point of approximately $60000.
Before expiration: The market enters a pullback period, with prices fluctuating narrowly around $60000, increasing selling pressure, and a significant gamma pinning effect.
After expiration: Short term fluctuations amplified after expiration, BTC first fell and then rebounded, but overall maintained a downward trend and did not immediately start a strong upward trend.
On September 27, 2024 (quarterly delivery), with a nominal value of approximately $18 billion and a maximum pain point of approximately $62000.
Before expiration: Due to the impact of Federal Reserve policies, prices are sideways in the range of $55000 to $65000, with moderate liquidity, resulting in a range compression due to hedging.
After expiration: After settlement, the volatility increased, BTC broke through upwards, and the expectation of interest rate cuts opened up a rebound market, pushing towards around $70000.
On December 27, 2024 (annual major delivery), the nominal value is approximately $19.8 billion, with a maximum pain point of approximately $75000.
Before expiration: During the peak of the bull market, the price fluctuated between $70000 and $80000, and the call for options was too high, resulting in weak upward pressure, but the liquidity during the holidays was thin.
After expiration: After the release of hedging, BTC continued its bull market momentum, quickly breaking through $80000, and the year-end Christmas market pushed the price further up.
On March 28, 2025 (quarterly delivery), with a nominal value of approximately $14 billion and a maximum pain point of approximately $85000.
Before expiration: With favorable regulatory conditions, prices are fluctuating around $80000 to $90000, with optimistic sentiment but short-term downside risks. Gamma provides floor support.
After expiration: After expiration, the volatility increased and BTC broke through $85000, opening a strong market trend towards $100000.
On June 27, 2025 (quarterly delivery), with a nominal value of approximately $14.5 billion and a maximum pain point of approximately $102000.
Before expiration: Market sentiment mixed, with significant price fluctuations.
After expiration: Short term correction after settlement, but overall maintaining an upward trend without extreme fluctuations.
On August 29, 2025 (quarterly delivery), the nominal value is approximately $13.8-14.5 billion, with a maximum pain point of approximately $116000.
Before expiration: The holiday liquidity is thin, prices fluctuate around $110000-120000, and the gamma trap effect is strengthened.
After expiration: BTC briefly dips below its biggest pain point and quickly recovers, with increased volatility but a quick rebound, continuing the bull market pattern.
On December 26, 2025 (today's annual delivery), the nominal value is approximately $23.6 billion, with a maximum pain point of approximately $96000.
Before expiration: Due to the thin market liquidity during the Christmas holiday and the rise in precious metal prices, Bitcoin prices fluctuated narrowly between $85000-90000, and gamma hedging strongly suppressed volatility.
After expiration: It is expected that the "cage" will disappear after settlement, and market volatility will significantly increase, possibly breaking through the $90000 range. Some analysts are optimistic about approaching $100000 and even starting a new year's rise.
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