Phyrex|12月 25, 2025 21:06
Good question, try to answer it:
The growth rate of stablecoins must have a threshold, which is inevitable. The growth rate of USDC in the early stage was very fast, although it was supported by Coinbase. It is obvious that Circle has increased its cooperation with first tier exchanges such as Binance and OKX. However, only Coinbase is still cooperating in terms of returns, and the 4% return of Coinbase members needs to be paid. Therefore, in my personal opinion, the probability of unlocking Coinbase and Circle in the short term is very small.
If it is really unlocked, it will have a great impact on the growth rate of USDC. From my personal understanding, financial management is one aspect, and the more important aspect is that USDC can be directly used as USD in Coinbase, and USDC can be directly converted into USD without loss. At least I think this is the biggest trump card.
For the growth rate of USDC, the total market value after listing is still the most important concern for Circle, after all, in terms of revenue, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is coming. If Circce cannot find new revenue points, it will need to increase absolute returns by expanding market value. But personally, I think the total market value of Circle is closely related to the cryptocurrency market. When the market is poor, the growth of USDC's total market value will be slower, unless Circle can find new growth points. USDT has done a good job in this regard.
2. The so-called fast payment of stablecoins is actually bypassing the traditional banking system. Can the banking system be fast? The answer is yes, as long as the bank is willing, speed is not a problem. The problem is that the bank's "slow" is not only in the process, but also in the review of funds. Therefore, instead of saying that stablecoins are fast, it is more accurate to say that stablecoins are resistant to review. Therefore, I think "fast" is not the main reason for the expansion of stablecoin payment scale.
For example, I used Wise to make money from Singapore to my bank account in China, and the fastest time it took was less than 10 seconds.
So there is a great correlation between question 1 and question 2, which lies in whether the essence of the usage scenario of stablecoins is "payment". If it is only for payment and for cross-border purposes, the total market value does not need to be too large, such as the current PYUSD. However, if the main scenario of stablecoins is not payment, but "acceptance", which is the current role of USDC, then the total market value of stablecoins should match the total market value of cryptocurrencies as much as possible.
3. Buying gold and US stocks with stablecoins is like taking off your pants and farting, there is no doubt about it. Without me speaking, it is very clear from the trading volume. The market does not think that buying US stocks and gold with stablecoins is sexy, so at least the current model is unlikely to become mainstream.
Every market has its own users, and the cryptocurrency market is more inclined towards high-risk and high leverage users, naturally distinguishing it from relatively low volatility US stock users. It cannot be denied that some US investors use cryptocurrency as a supplementary income to the US stock market, using small funds to play games for greater gains. In fact, it is the same as us buying mainstream coins with large funds and buying counterfeit and Meme with small funds.
But the main users of the US stock market actually include the pension system, passive ETF system, index system, repurchase system, active institutional system, and even some overseas funds. These are the dominant forces that make up the US stock buying market, and they all have sufficient compliance and supervision. Compared to stablecoins, they believe more in fiat currencies, and the legal assets purchased with fiat currencies are real, deliverable, and traceable. However, the assets purchased with stablecoins are almost all "mapped" non compliant assets. This means that at least for now, using stablecoins to purchase US stocks is just a chicken rib.
This is also the question you asked, why use stablecoins for transfer? As long as it is a compliant and legal fund, there is no need for such an additional process, and it will be even more complicated when bonded.
In the end, I still say that if stablecoins are just a payment channel, their meaning and value will definitely be reduced. The main reason for the sustainable development of stablecoins is not payment, but acceptance.
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