星球日报|Dec 25, 2025 14:01
By 2026, quantum computing will not lead to the collapse of cryptocurrencies, but we need to be cautious of the risk of "collecting first and decrypting later"
Odaily Planet Daily News: Experts from institutions such as Argentum AI and Coin Bureau stated in an interview that the threat of quantum computing to cryptocurrencies in 2026 is still in the theoretical stage, rather than imminent. Clark Alexander, the head of Argentum AI, stated that commercial applications of quantum computing are expected to be extremely limited by 2026. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, stated that 90% of quantum threat theory belongs to marketing, and there are still at least ten years left until computers capable of cracking existing cryptography emerge. However, experts point out that the public key cryptography relied upon by blockchain networks such as Bitcoin poses potential risks. Boosty Labs expert Sofiia Kireieva pointed out that the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) used for private and public keys is the weakest link, while the SHA-256 hash function has lower vulnerability. Ahmad Shadid, founder of O Foundation, stated that address reuse significantly increases the risk of being hacked. Currently, about 25% to 30% of BTC (approximately 4 million coins) are stored in addresses with exposed public keys, which are more vulnerable to attacks by quantum computers. Sahara AI co-founder Sean Ren warns that the real threat in 2026 is not system crashes, but rather attackers collecting as much encrypted data as possible for decryption when the technology matures in the future. Cysic co-founder Leo Fan described this as a "collect first, decrypt later" attack scenario. In response to potential threats, the crypto community has taken action. Qastle announced in November its plan to provide quantum level security protection for hot wallets by upgrading the underlying cryptography. Experts suggest that users avoid reusing addresses and migrate funds promptly when quantum resistant wallets are available. Although there will not be a quantum apocalypse in 2026, quantum computing will become an advanced risk factor in the field of encrypted security.
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