看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Dec 25, 2025 12:54
Actually, it's not your fault for losing money, brother. Today, even the USDT lying on the exchange was wiped out and almost a Mercedes Benz was lost So why has the Chinese yuan risen so fast recently? The core reason is that the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates. This year, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates three times, totaling 75BP, while we only lowered interest rates once in May, totaling 10BP. As for the historical breakthrough of the trade surplus of over one trillion yuan mentioned online, this is the result, not the reason. One part of the reason for this one trillion yuan surplus is the appreciation of the renminbi, and another part is the decrease in imports, which is still due to insufficient domestic demand. Another small reason is that the fourth quarter has always been the peak season for domestic enterprises to settle foreign exchange seasonally, but according to my communication with some companies, this influencing factor is not significant. From the perspective of the central bank's attitude, it is not willing for the renminbi to appreciate too quickly. Recently, the central parity rate of the renminbi against the US dollar has been adjusted towards a weaker direction for 10 consecutive trading days. Finally, how will the RMB go in the future? Deutsche Bank is the most aggressive, expecting the Chinese yuan to rise to 6.7 against the US dollar by the end of 2026 and further rise to 6.5 by 2027. Deutsche Bank believes that the internationalization process driven by policies, the expansion of trade settlement scale, the narrowing of capital account deficit, and the narrowing of China US interest rate differential will work together to promote the sustained appreciation of the RMB. UBS's forecast is similar to that of Deutsche Bank, believing that the Chinese yuan is expected to break through 6.9 in the second half of 2026. UBS stated that the Chinese yuan can continue to maintain a stable and upward trend against the US dollar, and will remain around 7 from 2025 to June 2026. It is expected to further rise to around 6.9 in the second half of next year, entering the "6 era" again. Morgan Stanley's forecast is relatively conservative, expecting the US dollar to hit 7.05 against the Chinese yuan by the end of 2026 and 6.95 by the end of 27. Xing Ziqiang believes that the weakening of the US dollar coupled with stable capital inflows will support a moderate rebound in the RMB exchange rate, but the appreciation will be relatively limited. As for my attitude, how can I put it.... If the USDT is full, no analysis will be conducted.
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