Several Brainstorming Thoughts on Predicting the Market 1. Apart from speculation, what is the positive value of predicting the market? The stock trading market uses market pricing to enable high-value companies to achieve high market value, also known as "value discovery," thereby achieving optimized capital allocation. And predicting the market is to achieve "truth mining" by predicting the probability, bringing society closer to the truth. What is the relationship between prediction and truth? The relationship between price and value in the stock trading market is that the price fluctuates around the value and remains consistent with the value in the long run. In predicting the market, the relationship between prediction and truth is that as time progresses, the prediction becomes closer to the truth, until the moment when the truth is revealed, reaching complete consistency. What impact does insider trading have on predicting the market? There is a strange paradox here, on the one hand, insider traders' involvement is unfair to other participants; On the other hand, insiders are helpful in predicting the market. For example, before the official release of the Nobel Prize, if the probability of predicting the market suddenly changes, it has already revealed who the winner is, which is one step faster than the media and plays a role in "truth mining". The prediction market platform and government have begun to formulate relevant rules and policies to control insider trading. Why does the prediction market need blockchain? This question is similar to, why does finance need blockchain? The reason is that it is more open and transparent, which will attract more participants and make it easier to build an open ecosystem. For example, the insider trading mentioned earlier can be monitored and analyzed through on chain wallet monitoring and data analysis (there are already many platforms that can locate suspicious insider trading behavior, and anyone can analyze it, greatly enhancing the platform's trust). In finance, trust is the core. 5. Predict the size and development space of the market As the United States clears obstacles to compliance in the prediction market, the industry has entered a golden period of rapid development. At present, the daily trading volume of the poly market is around 100-200 million US dollars, accounting for 2% of Binance's spot trading volume. In the era where everything can be traded, trading institutions such as Binance, Coinbase, Robinwood, and Interactive Brokers are all working hard to layout the prediction market, and no one wants to overtake in the new track. After all, this is a new 'trading species'. The following article analyzes BNB's layout in predicting the market, with some opportunities for retail investors to participate. You can take a look