How will the USDT/CNY exchange rate trend throughout 2026? On December 25, 2025, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate officially broke above the 7.0 threshold, hitting a new high since late September 2024. Fed rate cut policy: The market widely expects the Fed to continue cutting rates in 2026, which could lead to a structural weakening of the US Dollar Index, thereby pushing down the USDT to RMB exchange rate. China-US interest rate spread narrowing: As the U.S. rate cut trajectory is steeper than China's, the China-US interest rate spread is expected to narrow further, reducing depreciation pressure on the RMB. USDT premium situation: If the crypto market enters a bull run in 2026, USDT may experience a positive premium (i.e., the actual purchase price slightly higher than the official exchange rate). In a bear market like now, there’s a negative premium. Forecast: Volatility and consolidation around the 7.0 level in the first half of the year. In the second half, the RMB/USD exchange rate may shift to the 6.6-6.8 range.