I wrote two tweets yesterday, one about the big cycle&knockoff season, and the other about my view that 2026 is just a transitional period. Today, I will combine these two tweets together to discuss. As a trend investor in the big cycle, the first thing to do is to "not go against the trend". This is also why many investors did not lose money on altcoins during this cycle, because they did not buy any altcoins. The reason for not buying is because they did not do "high-risk" things during the currency tightening cycle. Cryptocurrencies themselves are high-risk and highly volatile assets compared to the US stock market. Except for a few mainstream currencies such as BTC that can have strong consensus and capital inflows, the vast majority of tokens in cryptocurrencies are like air. The US stock market at least has financial reports, even in tight cycles. If the financial report performance is excellent, there is still a chance for it to rise. It can be said that the financial report is the most direct indicator of the US stock market. However, cryptocurrency not only lacks financial reports, but in reality, everything about the project may not be transparent. TVL may be borrowed, APR may be fake (mixing in their own tokens to increase profits), protocols may be centralized, and users may be airdropped. This cannot truly promote the development of cryptocurrency, nor can it prove its commercial value. Even a few truly profitable protocols dare not bind their profits to the value of tokens due to concerns about being classified as "securities tokens," so cryptocurrencies rely on FOMO. Consensus is also a type of FOMO, and the essence of generating consensus and FOMO is political, economic, and technological stimulation. The political stimulus of 2025 is Trump's preferential treatment of cryptocurrency, the SEC and CFTC's easing of cryptocurrency, and the economic stimulus is that some Tokens have passed the spot ETF or established DAT (strategic reserve) with listed companies. The technical stimulus includes the combination of AI and cryptocurrency. Theoretically, the convergence of the three should lead to a wave of upward trends, but the major premise is not satisfied, which is monetary policy. Even the US stock market doesn't have enough money, so how much can enter cryptocurrency and how much can enter altcoins? Not to mention the three stimulus types mentioned earlier, the policy stimulus is given to Bitcoin, the economic stimulus is mainly given to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the AI stimulus is still relatively strong, so it is difficult for the spring of altcoins to emerge. Will there be a knockoff season? I think there will be, but it is estimated that there may be a wave of market in the second half of 2026 at most. The main reason for this wave of market is that, without recession, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve leads Trump's loyal members of the Federal Reserve to push interest rates from tightening to easing, such as increasing the number of interest rate cuts, increasing the intensity of interest rate cuts, and clearly turning to dove at the press conference, followed by the efforts and commitments made by the Republican Party for the mid-term elections. Together, the three should start a small climax. But this climax does not necessarily mean that we can break through the new high. I think it can rise, but 70000 to 100000 is also rising, 90000 to 120000 is also rising, and 100000 to 150000 is still rising. Rising is a result, but the price before rising is difficult to determine. Before May 2026, or in the first quarter of 2026, it may also be difficult. And the real peak period, I think, will still be in 2028, when the election cycle may truly enter a relaxed state. All of my current actions are in preparation for 2028, and 2026 may be an opportunity for a stock adjustment. This is just my personal opinion, my opinion may not be correct. @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits