Why do I no longer recommend participating in altcoin trading at this stage In the current cryptocurrency market, only a very small number of assets, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few public chain assets with clear ecological and cash flow logic, have truly completed multiple rounds of cycle verification and entered the asset allocation framework of traditional financial institutions. In addition, the vast majority of tokens still belong to the category of altcoins in essence. But the underlying operating logic of the altcoin market has undergone fundamental changes. If you look back at the past, you will find that altcoins have not always been inaccessible. The DeFi Summer of 2021 is essentially a resonance between technological breakthroughs and incremental liquidity, with smart contracts for the first time significantly lowering the threshold for the use of financial infrastructure; The Meme craze in early 2024 is a concentrated release of community culture, narrative, and emotional diffusion. At these stages, the market still has relatively clear "research objects" - whether it is business models, technological paths, or emotional cycles, ordinary participants still have room to establish judgment frameworks. But the current environment is completely different. On the one hand, incremental funds are significantly weakening, and both macro liquidity and new funds within the industry are unable to support widespread and sustained risk appetite; On the other hand, a deeper problem lies in the disorder of the value system - a large number of projects lacking real users and application scenarios occupy the core position of the ecosystem due to resource, relationship, or structural reasons, and receive sustained market attention and financial support. Under this structure, technological innovation is no longer the core variable of value creation, but gradually degenerates into a narrative packaging. The success of a project increasingly depends less on the product itself and more on chip design, liquidity arrangements, and smooth exit paths. Once the reward and punishment mechanism fails, the market will naturally slide towards bad money driving out good money. This also directly changes the nature of price fluctuations in altcoins. Nowadays, the rise and fall of most altcoins have evolved into highly traded and structured stock games: No longer looking at fundamentals, but at chip concentration, open interest (OI) of contracts, flow of market maker funds, and who has earlier and more complete information. In this extremely asymmetric information environment, ordinary investors have almost no structural advantage. The so-called profit relies more on short-term sprinting and fast in and out, which is essentially a high-risk game rather than replicable investment behavior. What is even more alarming is that this market environment is quietly reshaping the psychological models of participants, becoming a 'defensive psychology in low trust environments' in psychology. When you are exposed to opaque and trustless games for a long time, defensive skepticism becomes a habit. You will instinctively view all new projects as' potential scams' and no longer distinguish between good and bad; -The price has risen slightly, and you are eager to settle down; -The price has returned to normal, but you are fortunate that you did not participate deeply. Over time, you will realize that what you have lost is not just an opportunity, but the ability to hold high-quality assets for the long term. I have an example around me: a friend who has worked in the Internet industry for many years heard of Bitcoin in 2015, but always believed that it was a fraud. Subsequently, the price continued to rise, and he questioned and missed out all the way. Until today, he still hasn't held any Bitcoin. This is not the cost of one wrong judgment, but the result of long-term solidification of defensive skepticism - it helps you avoid risks while systematically blocking opportunities to truly change your life trajectory. Therefore, if you are not a professional trader and do not have a stable and sustained information advantage, then the risks of being addicted to contracts and short-term games at the current stage far outweigh the returns. Even if you occasionally make some money by luck, this fragmented speculative experience will gradually erode your judgment of long-term trends. In the end, you may find that: Winning a few small trades, but missing out on the truly important wealth cycle. And this is often the most costly choice.