qinbafrank|12月 24, 2025 11:52
I totally agree with Brother Ni's summary on the reasons behind USDT's negative premium. The core of the negative premium boils down to two main points: In early December, thirteen ministries jointly issued a statement to further tighten regulations, which we also discussed at the time as being unfavorable for OTC and crypto merchants.
Then, with the market being sluggish recently and the year-end approaching, everyone is more inclined to cash out. These two factors combined naturally led to the negative premium.
Another key driver for the recent rise in the RMB exchange rate is the year-end peak season for export enterprises settling foreign exchange: Q4 is traditionally the seasonal peak for settlements, and 2025 has seen strong exports (exports priced in USD grew 5.3% year-on-year in the first 10 months). Coupled with the Fed's rate-cut expectations causing USD fluctuations, enterprises are more willing to settle foreign exchange at the current favorable exchange rate to avoid potential future losses.
In this situation, export enterprises (especially those supported by trade surpluses) tend to settle foreign exchange quickly to lock in profits. The settlement rate has risen from around 60% at the beginning of the year to about 70%.
Checked the data: This year, banks' client foreign exchange settlements and sales have gradually shifted from a deficit (e.g., around -$39.2 billion in January) to a surplus, which has continued to expand, reaching a single-month surplus of $51.7 billion in September (a recent high). The cumulative surplus for the first 10 months has further increased. This directly boosts the demand for RMB in the forex market, driving the exchange rate upward.
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