比特币橙子Trader
比特币橙子Trader|Dec 24, 2025 08:47
Today, I accidentally found that the last friend of Polymarket had a 100% success rate. So far, it has transferred 100000 dollars. Then I modified this link to ChatGPT in-depth research, and the strategy was Rocket. My prompt for ChatGPT is: Analyze how this user on Polymarket makes money, and finally provide me with his profit strategy. I hope you can: Analyze all historical transactions, including closed and still held markets All transaction categories must cover Detailed statistics of each profit and loss, return rate of each transaction, duration of holding, and other detailed indicators https://(polymarket.com)/@quepasamae Then a few minutes later, GPT gave me a serious and earnest report, and I posted a paragraph: Polymarket user quepasamae transaction record analysis 1. Profit and loss summary According to publicly available data, quepasamae has achieved explosive profits on Polymarket. The initial investment in their account is approximately $6500- $7000. Starting from early November 2025, within just two months, he rolled over his account to nearly $100000, with a net profit of approximately $102000. This is equivalent to approximately 15 times the return on investment (ROI~1500%). In recent statistics, its historical total profit was approximately $102000. Total invested capital: approximately $6.5k to $7k (initial capital) Total profit: approximately $102k (net profit) Return rate: ≈ 1500% (doubling principal by 15 times within two months) It is worth noting that Quepasamae holds certain open positions with a current market value of approximately $6178.83. Therefore, the above profits mainly come from the cumulative income of closed trades. 2. Transaction statistics Transaction frequency: Quepasamae has a very high trading frequency, completing approximately 27000 transactions within two months (averaging hundreds per day). This massive high-frequency trading is driven by its automated trading program, achieving a trading frequency that is difficult for humans to reach. Winning rate: Its winning rate is close to 100%, with almost no loss making trades. He focuses on participating in "must win" events with a winning rate of 90% -99%. That is to say, most trading targets have almost determined the outcome when placing bets (such as the outcome of a match or election being clear), with minimal remaining uncertainty. With this strategy, he rarely encounters directional errors, so his winning rate is almost 100%. Average return per transaction: Due to his pursuit of small arbitrage, the average profit margin per transaction is extremely low (usually<1%). Typically, obtaining a spread yield of approximately 0.1% -1% in a market that is close to 100% certain; Occasionally achieving double-digit returns in the short-term volatile market. For example, he invested~$372 in a 15 minute Bitcoin price prediction and made~$140 in profit, with a single transaction yield of up to 37.6%. But overall, the return rate of most transactions is only a few tenths to a few percent, accumulating huge profits through high-frequency compound interest. Average holding time: Quepasamae's holding time is very short, usually ranging from a few minutes to several hours. Many transactions are completed within a few minutes (such as the fast in and fast out of the cryptocurrency market within 15 minutes), and the longest wait is only a few hours for the event to be officially settled. His strategy is essentially high turnover: taking advantage of price imbalances within a very short time window for arbitrage. For example, in a market where the outcome is predetermined, he is willing to hold his position and wait for several hours until the official results are announced; For real-time volatile market conditions, his position may only last for a few minutes or even shorter. Overall, its average holding period is much lower than that of traditional day traders, with most closing positions on the same day or even within a few minutes. Preference for betting direction: Quepasamae does not blindly follow market consensus or bet against the trend, but flexibly utilizes market sentiment bias: in most trades, he follows the "consensus" that will ultimately be realized (such as the actual outcome of the event) to ensure a winning rate, but he specifically performs reverse operations to earn profits for short-term market imbalances. For example, when the vast majority of people see it right (winning or losing is almost a foregone conclusion), they buy into the side that is about to cash in; But when there is excessive panic/greed in the short term that causes prices to deviate from the reasonable range, he will intervene in reverse to correct the deviation. Overall, his core lies in arbitrage rather than betting on the success or failure of the event itself, neither blindly converging nor going against the trend, but making money by exploiting price deviations. Then I asked GPT to provide me with a replicable trading strategy and immediately gave me two directions: Category A: Sports are approaching the end (the score difference is large enough, and there is not enough time left to overturn) Class B: Clear and verifiable vote counting/announcement (official source, clear statement) A detailed strategy has been provided, and if these strategies are studied carefully, they can be immediately programmed and executed using tools such as Cursor CC Codex. AI has enabled everyone to program super individuals. VibeCodig Polymarket
+6
Mentioned
Share To

Timeline

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads