小牛|Dec 24, 2025 08:16
Let's talk about the current fundamentals:
The next interest rate meeting is on January 28, but the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has already dropped from 21% to 13%.
However, the probability of Chairman Ha being aggressive has risen from 52% to 57%.
Hassett directly pointed out that the Fed's 'rate cut is seriously lagging,' bringing the policy rhythm debate to the surface.
If the probability of a 25-point rate cut drops below 10% before January 15, I’ll choose to operate again. The 21 buy-in wasn’t much, just covering myself.
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