Murphy
Murphy|12月 24, 2025 06:15
We all know that the vast majority of Coinbase users are American investors with numerous institutions. Therefore, the net inflow/outflow data of BTC on Coinbase can provide a more intuitive reflection of the emotions and behavioral changes of American investors. For the convenience of expression, I have marked the data at each key time point. (Figure 1) Some interesting discoveries! Let's see if that's the case ..... 1. Institutions, like individual investors, also have emotions, impulses, and panic. For example, the annotations 1/4/9 in the figure represent the process of breaking through historical highs or reaching their peak, accompanied by a large amount of BTC being proposed to the exchange, which is a typical "Fomo" sentiment. 2. After a correction in BTC price, especially a sustained downward trend or a rapid decline under the influence of events, institutions will also be afraid. So, when marked as 2/5/13 in the chart, they became extremely cautious when they first hit the bottom, and the net outflow of BTC significantly shrank compared to before. 3. After the tariff crisis was resolved in April, they seemed to have immense confidence in BTC again. Although the price was already as high as $110000 at that time, they would eagerly buy and withdraw any slight drop. So the labels 7/8/10/11/12 in the picture are all expressions of this confidence. 4. The most interesting thing is that due to the impressive returns from each confident move made over the past six months (7/8/10), it seems that after the 10.11 incident, they did not raise any alarm or concern. During the two declines of 10/18 and 11/4, they not only did not stop, but also became even more greedy. So we see how 'strong' the demand for annotation 12 is! However, when it fell to 8.5w on 11/22, they finally began to feel scared ..... 5. This is also in line with their previous behavior pattern: every time there is a pullback, the first wave of bottoming out will appear very cautious (afraid to buy), while the second wave of rebounding will show greed. Just like now! Although the scale is not as large as before, it has at least begun ..... Do you think the performance of the institution is also like a big leek? ---------------------------------------------- Bitget VIP, Lower rates and more generous benefits
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