Phyrex|12月 23, 2025 18:46
Discuss the reasons for the negative premium of USDT over RMB
In fact, there are three main reasons why the premium of USDT over RMB is higher than that of USD over RMB:
Firstly, on a macro level, the renminbi is currently experiencing a strong appreciation against the US dollar. Since the second half of 2025, the renminbi has continued to strengthen, with the official central parity rate and spot exchange rate falling below 7.05 and further approaching 7.03 in late December. The reasons include the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the improvement of China's economic data. Holding USDT is equivalent to indirectly holding US dollar assets, which will result in exchange rate losses in the context of RMB appreciation.
That is to say, the market itself may have some deviation in the exchange rate due to the expectation that the RMB will continue to strengthen, but this is not the main reason, it can only be a minor secondary reason.
Secondly, China's regulatory policies have significantly tightened. In early December 2025, the central bank and thirteen other departments jointly issued a document to strengthen the crackdown on virtual currency trading speculation, explicitly including stablecoins (such as USDT) in the regulatory scope, with a focus on illegal cross-border fund flows, money laundering, and underground banks using USDT.
This has led to many off exchange merchants and traders suspending or reducing their operations, resulting in a tightening of market liquidity. Some holders are concerned about account freezing or regulatory risks, and are eager to sell USDT to exchange for RMB, leading to an increase in supply and a sharp decline in demand, which directly lowers P2P prices.
In history, every regulatory upgrade in China (such as the ban in 2021) has led to a negative premium for USDT off the exchange rate, and this time the intensity is even greater, so the offset of USDT against the RMB exchange rate will be greater.
Thirdly, the overall volatility of the cryptocurrency market, coupled with regulatory bearish sentiment, has led to a decrease in demand for USDT from retail investors and institutions. Some investors in mainland China hope to quickly sell their USDT to avoid risks, just like the current real estate market in China, forming a negative premium cycle.
And I don't think the current price of USDT against the Chinese yuan is even the lowest. The exchange rate of USD against the Chinese yuan may fall below 6.8, let alone the premium of USDT against the Chinese yuan.
The decline in USDT's premium over the RMB is not simply a matter of exchange rate, but rather the result of the "functional disappearance" of USDT within the Chinese system after regulatory upgrades. When a tool is left with only risk and no longer provides efficiency, discounting itself is a reasonable pricing, and this process is difficult to quickly reverse.
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