This article by Rhythm touches on the essence of prediction markets: many prediction markets aren't about 'predicting the future,' but rather exposing the results that 'a few people already know' in advance. Prediction markets are changing the way 'secrets' exist. The traditional flow of information was: Event happens → A few people know → Report (publish) → The public knows But prediction markets introduce a new path: Event happens → Someone knows → Someone places a bet → Prices start to shift → The world 'knows in advance' There's even a more extreme path: Event happens → Someone knows → Someone places a bet → Prices start to shift → The event itself changes What we truly care about are three things: · Which events' odds changes don't seem to be driven by emotions or public information? · Are there addresses that consistently place heavy bets 'ahead of the outcome' and have an unusually high historical accuracy? · Do these behaviors point to some kind of 'known but undisclosed' facts?