Thinking about expectations for 2026 from a macro perspective Firstly, I agree with Brother M's viewpoint that even if he continues to bear in 2026, there is a high probability that he will hit the bottom within the above two ranges. The probability of 7w-8w is greater than that of 6w-7w. Many friends may think that I am too optimistic, yes! I have always maintained a cautious optimism. ） Of course, I myself am also cautiously optimistic. Then I will list the macro, important events, encryption policies, and specific timeline for 2026. The conclusion is at the bottom. 1. There will be a total of 8 interest rate meetings in 2026, which will be held in January, March, April, June, July, September, October, and December. 2. The US midterm elections are on November 3rd 3. The two parties will continue to play games before January 30, 2026, and the short-term budget will be exhausted by January 30. January is a critical period for the game of subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. If it fails, it will trigger a new negotiation deadlock, which in turn will affect the comprehensive budget negotiations at the end of January next year. Unable to reach a consensus on a long-term budget, the government will shut down again after the end of January. 4. SLR unbinding (simply put, relaxing an important "tightening spell" on banks, allowing them to do more other things, such as lending to businesses and bringing liquidity to the market) is expected to occur between January and April. 5. The Federal Reserve's Rmp bond purchase to expand its balance sheet will take about one or two months. It has already started. 6. SEC Chairman Atkins stated that the innovation exemption for cryptocurrency companies will take effect in January next year 7. The new chairman of the Federal Reserve, regardless of who it is, must take into account the fundamentals of the economy, although the market may trade for a period of time on the independence of the Federal Reserve. It is difficult to determine the specific time for market trading independence during the May election. The new chairman may help Trump win the mid-term election and adopt relatively radical policies and measures. This can only be seen after the middle of next year. 8. Monthly labor and inflation data released 9. The tariff subsidy mentioned by Trump is $2000 per person for the middle and lower classes. After mid-2026 I shouldn't have missed it, welcome to add and correct me. Then the number of interest rate cuts next year, combined with my personal opinion mentioned earlier, may be once on Q1, and there may be 1-2 times after the presidential election in May. Once is certain, it will help with the midterm elections. If needed at that time, it may happen again, but the specific time is hard to say. I can't predict now either. That means twice a year In summary My personal expectation is that now is a temporary bear market, so the temporary bull market will rebound. Maybe twice a year. Be careful ⚠️， Why do I say it's a temporary bull market? Because although there will be interest rate cuts and policy easing next year, there hasn't been a significant easing, and the real liquidity push may still be in the future. Possible timing for the first time: There are positive factors such as the fifth and sixth points mentioned above in January, but there are also risks such as the third point mentioned above. As for the interest rate cut in Q1, I feel that the possibility is greater in March and not necessarily in January. If in March, the risks of 3 have already passed, and the positive news of 3 may have begun to be expected, coupled with the speculation of interest rate cuts, it may be anticipated. Then pause the interest rate cuts, change the Federal Reserve, and at the same time, play a game to see if inflation has already stabilized and declined. And then this time has already come after June. It's not been many months since 11.3. Interest rate cuts and loose policies before the midterm elections. Perhaps it's a new market expectation. So this second time may be after the middle of the year, around the time of the midterm elections. Attention ⚠️ I only mentioned the possible timing of the stage market situation above, and did not mention the price. In fact, as long as the price rebounds (such as now rebounding by more than 100000 yuan and stabilizing), the mood will immediately improve, and the market will call for a bull rebound. I think what we need to focus on is the trend sentiment, not necessarily the price. No one can buy at the lowest and sell at the highest. The above is only personal opinion and not investment advice. And many events are constantly changing, what I'm talking about is just current thoughts. What if we hype up the expectation of interest rate cuts and cut interest rates in January. So our ideological transformation is about to catch up.