Chip distribution, turnover behavior, and my expectations and thoughts for 2026 (long article) If we consider 10.11 as the starting point of this round of decline, there have been significant changes in BTC's chip structure during these two months. We compared the URPD data for the two days of 10/11 and 12/20, and it is very clear that the chips in the red shaded area are decreasing, while a large amount of accumulation is occurring in between (partly due to Coinbase's wallet consolidation). (Figure 1) (Figure 2) But this can only give a rough idea; For the convenience of statistics, I have compiled the entire URPD data into a table and divided it into tiers of $10000 each. I have calculated the amount of chips accumulated and distributed from October 11th to December 20th, in order to help us observe the current price distribution and turnover behavior. (Figure 3) Based on the above table, the following observations and summaries can be made 1. The current highest accumulation of BTC is in the price range of 8w-9w US dollars, with a total of 253.6w coins, an increase of 187.4w coins compared to 10/11. This means that from 10/11-12/20, the range of 8w-9w US dollars is also the strongest absorption range so far, followed by the 9w-10w range (an increase of 32.4W coins), and the 10w-11w range (an increase of 8.7W coins). 2. Based on the current BTC price as the midpoint, there are a total of 616.8w floating loss chips above and 746.2w floating profit chips below; That is to say, apart from Satoshi Nakamoto and the long lost BTC, the current BTC price is almost at a balanced position in the chip structure. If we consider the upper and lower two large intervals as the two sides of the "double anchor structure", then BTC is now approaching the middle zone. 3. From 10/11-12/20, a total of 133w lower profit positions were reduced, and a total of 90.2w upper lock up positions with costs above $110000 were reduced. It should be noted that the number of BTC with costs in the range of 10w-11w not only did not decrease, but also increased by 8.7w coins. It can be seen that in this wave of decline, the top that needs to be cut has already been cut, and most of the rest should have already been flattened. 4. The main contradiction now is the large-scale sale of profit taking stocks; Whether it's the 4-year cycle theory, macro uncertainty, or quantum threats, market concerns have prompted LTH to embark on an epic distribution and currently have a large inventory. Among them, BTC with costs in the range of 6w-7w has the highest quantity and the largest selling volume. These are all chips accumulated before the 2024 presidential election, and as profits sharply retreat, there is a rush to cash them out. 5. At present, the range of 7w-8w is a relatively 'gap zone', with a total of only 19w BTC remaining. There are hardly many people in the market holding BTC at this price. So once BTC falls into this range, it is highly likely to attract a large amount of liquidity to come in, thereby generating support, which is also the logic of the "double anchor structure" that has been repeatedly verified in the past. --------------------------------------------- Expectations and Trading Considerations for 2026 From the data on changes in chip structure and turnover behavior above, it can be seen that the current high-level panic market, especially those with costs above $110000, has been basically exhausted. Next, unless the price continues to drop significantly, causing another panic among the 187w chips in the 8-9w range. In addition, the key is to see to what extent the profitable chips below will be sold. From a different perspective, when such a large amount of "old coins" are cashed out, the price of BTC has not fallen by more than 50% as rapidly as in previous cycles, indicating that the market has the ability to absorb them. When the price falls below the cost-effectiveness, demand arises, and then the structure is reflected in layers of defense. Therefore, this is more like a strong "washing out" process (a change in BTC's future dominance) rather than a major cyclical transition. When BTC fell below the "MVRV extreme deviation range" ($12.1w), I chose to take all profits and started building positions after the "Investor Confidence Index" entered the red zone ($10.2w). I used a positive pyramid hanging order and bought spot goods in the 9w-9.8w and 8w-8.9w price ranges, but the largest hanging order has not been executed yet at 8w (the 11/21 pin is only $600 short). At present, the cost is just over 90000 yuan and the storage capacity is around 60%. If we only calculate the spot account, it is currently in a floating loss state, but the drawdown is not severe. Additionally, in early November, I hedged some of my risk exposure by going long on volatility based on data indicating high chip concentration. Overall, it is currently profitable. My assessment of the future market is that there will definitely be a turning point in 2026, and it will occur earlier than most people's expectations. In other words, I do not believe that Q4 of 2026 will be the bottom of the bear market, it will definitely come earlier. From the perspective of chip structure, both the range of 7w-8w US dollars and 6w-7w US dollars are strongly supported. The former is the force exerted by the large-scale "double anchor structure", while the latter has a pile of nearly 120000 chips, and after a round of large-scale distribution, there are still so many left. Therefore, my personal expectation is that even if we continue to bear in 2026, there is a high probability that we will hit the bottom within the above two ranges. The probability of 7w-8w is greater than that of 6w-7w. Many friends may think that I am too optimistic, yes! I have always maintained a cautious optimism. But I won't bet that BTC will definitely fall or break through here, I will just prepare in advance for it. If you arrive, buy according to the plan. If you don't arrive, wait for the opportunity on the right. Although there are also issues such as capital and time costs here, they are not what I need to consider. What I want to focus on is certainty (no one can buy at the lowest and sell at the highest), trading time for space. I believe that once BTC enters the $70000 range, there will be many positive outcomes for foreign investors. Because as long as you believe that BTC can go up 150000 in the next bull market, then entering at this time is a definite expectation of doubling. $150000- not far from us. Whether you believe it or not, I believe it. If there are unexpected situations that lead to excessive risk exposure, I will also do some hedging appropriately. My confidence comes from healthy and good cash flow, but this method may not be suitable for everyone, so let's just refer to it. I provided a detailed analysis and explanation of the logic behind the data and indicators mentioned above, such as the "MVRV extreme deviation range," "investor confidence index," and "chip concentration," in my tweet at the time. I never delete any tweet for any reason, even if I make a mistake. Interested friends can search for it themselves, but here we will be lazy and not post links. In the current market situation, I think not many people have read this long article, but I still wrote it. I hope to revisit my original thoughts and expectations at the end of 2026, and see how many were right and how many were wrong. It will be a very interesting thing. Thank you for your patience. You will definitely have good luck in 2026 if you persist in reading until this point! ---------------------------------------------- Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits